Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress continue to anchor trader assessments that President Trump will remain in office through the end of 2026, rendering House impeachment followed by two-thirds Senate conviction highly improbable without cross-aisle support that has not emerged. Partisan Democratic calls for removal tied to 2026 foreign policy actions, including Iran-related tensions, have produced resolutions and public statements but no bipartisan momentum or cabinet action under the 25th Amendment. No major health events, scandals, or institutional crises have altered this baseline. The 2024 electoral mandate and structural barriers to early departure sustain the 94.5% implied probability for continuity, with November 2026 midterms representing the next scheduled test of congressional dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
6% probabilità
$10,788,759 Vol.
$10,788,759 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
6% probabilità
$10,788,759 Vol.
$10,788,759 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress continue to anchor trader assessments that President Trump will remain in office through the end of 2026, rendering House impeachment followed by two-thirds Senate conviction highly improbable without cross-aisle support that has not emerged. Partisan Democratic calls for removal tied to 2026 foreign policy actions, including Iran-related tensions, have produced resolutions and public statements but no bipartisan momentum or cabinet action under the 25th Amendment. No major health events, scandals, or institutional crises have altered this baseline. The 2024 electoral mandate and structural barriers to early departure sustain the 94.5% implied probability for continuity, with November 2026 midterms representing the next scheduled test of congressional dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,788,759Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress continue to anchor trader assessments that President Trump will remain in office through the end of 2026, rendering House impeachment followed by two-thirds Senate conviction highly improbable without cross-aisle support that has not emerged. Partisan Democratic calls for removal tied to 2026 foreign policy actions, including Iran-related tensions, have produced resolutions and public statements but no bipartisan momentum or cabinet action under the 25th Amendment. No major health events, scandals, or institutional crises have altered this baseline. The 2024 electoral mandate and structural barriers to early departure sustain the 94.5% implied probability for continuity, with November 2026 midterms representing the next scheduled test of congressional dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,788,759Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress continue to anchor trader assessments that President Trump will remain in office through the end of 2026, rendering House impeachment followed by two-thirds Senate conviction highly improbable without cross-aisle support that has not emerged. Partisan Democratic calls for removal tied to 2026 foreign policy actions, including Iran-related tensions, have produced resolutions and public statements but no bipartisan momentum or cabinet action under the 25th Amendment. No major health events, scandals, or institutional crises have altered this baseline. The 2024 electoral mandate and structural barriers to early departure sustain the 94.5% implied probability for continuity, with November 2026 midterms representing the next scheduled test of congressional dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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