Mitch McConnell’s extended medical absence since his June 2026 hospitalization following a fall has left him absent from all Senate roll calls after June 11, with more than 60 consecutive misses recorded through mid-August. The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican, who announced in 2025 he would not seek re-election and whose term ends in January 2027, was discharged from rehabilitation in early August and returned home but has provided no timeline for resuming floor votes. Statements from his office have described ongoing recovery and staff coordination on Senate matters without confirming any imminent return to the chamber before the September 30 resolution date. Traders therefore assign the higher 72% probability to “No,” reflecting the sustained health-related barriers and absence of any procedural or scheduling signals that would enable participation in the remaining session.