Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination for Kansas's 4th congressional district with over 80 percent of the August 4 primary vote, facing Democrat Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer in the November general election. The district's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Estes's 2024 margin exceeding 30 points, underpin trader consensus around a 92.5 percent Republican outcome. Primary results and fundraising data show limited Democratic competitiveness in this solidly Republican seat. A major national shift, late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among opposing voters could narrow margins, though structural factors and recent ballot outcomes have reinforced the current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKS-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
KS-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$63,455 Vol.
$63,455 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
93%
Partito Democratico
7%
$63,455 Vol.
$63,455 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$35,588 Vol.
93%
Partito Democratico
$27,866 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination for Kansas's 4th congressional district with over 80 percent of the August 4 primary vote, facing Democrat Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer in the November general election. The district's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Estes's 2024 margin exceeding 30 points, underpin trader consensus around a 92.5 percent Republican outcome. Primary results and fundraising data show limited Democratic competitiveness in this solidly Republican seat. A major national shift, late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among opposing voters could narrow margins, though structural factors and recent ballot outcomes have reinforced the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$63,455Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination for Kansas's 4th congressional district with over 80 percent of the August 4 primary vote, facing Democrat Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer in the November general election. The district's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Estes's 2024 margin exceeding 30 points, underpin trader consensus around a 92.5 percent Republican outcome. Primary results and fundraising data show limited Democratic competitiveness in this solidly Republican seat. A major national shift, late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among opposing voters could narrow margins, though structural factors and recent ballot outcomes have reinforced the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,455Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ron Estes secured his party's nomination for Kansas's 4th congressional district with over 80 percent of the August 4 primary vote, facing Democrat Katy Tyndell and Libertarian Drew Cranmer in the November general election. The district's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Estes's 2024 margin exceeding 30 points, underpin trader consensus around a 92.5 percent Republican outcome. Primary results and fundraising data show limited Democratic competitiveness in this solidly Republican seat. A major national shift, late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among opposing voters could narrow margins, though structural factors and recent ballot outcomes have reinforced the current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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