Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solidly Republican tilt, reflected in trader consensus around the Republican nominee at 92% implied probability ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, while Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a low-turnout contest. The district's rural and suburban composition, consistent R+ voting patterns, and Alford's prior general election margin exceeding 70% underpin the position. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, with minimal campaign activity or polling shifts since the primaries. A major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic reversal without significant new developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera MO-04
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera MO-04
$44,542 Vol.
$44,542 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
92%
Partito Democratico
9%
$44,542 Vol.
$44,542 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$28,293 Vol.
92%
Partito Democratico
$16,249 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solidly Republican tilt, reflected in trader consensus around the Republican nominee at 92% implied probability ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, while Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a low-turnout contest. The district's rural and suburban composition, consistent R+ voting patterns, and Alford's prior general election margin exceeding 70% underpin the position. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, with minimal campaign activity or polling shifts since the primaries. A major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic reversal without significant new developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$44,542Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solidly Republican tilt, reflected in trader consensus around the Republican nominee at 92% implied probability ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, while Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a low-turnout contest. The district's rural and suburban composition, consistent R+ voting patterns, and Alford's prior general election margin exceeding 70% underpin the position. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, with minimal campaign activity or polling shifts since the primaries. A major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic reversal without significant new developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,542Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solidly Republican tilt, reflected in trader consensus around the Republican nominee at 92% implied probability ahead of the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Mark Alford secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 78% of the vote, while Democrat Jordan Herrera emerged from a low-turnout contest. The district's rural and suburban composition, consistent R+ voting patterns, and Alford's prior general election margin exceeding 70% underpin the position. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, with minimal campaign activity or polling shifts since the primaries. A major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic reversal without significant new developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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