Current forecasts from multiple models indicate minimum temperatures in Mexico City on September 5 likely near the seasonal average of 13–14 °C, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation and typical early-September conditions of afternoon convection followed by partial nighttime clearing. Persistent low-pressure systems and scattered showers are expected to maintain cloud cover that limits radiative cooling, supporting the market’s elevated implied odds around 14 °C while capping the chance of sharp drops below 10 °C. Historical September lows rarely fall under 11 °C without unusual high-pressure buildup or clear, dry nights, which current atmospheric patterns do not favor. Traders appear to weigh these near-term model runs heavily, with the 17 °C+ outcome reflecting uncertainty if daytime heating or urban effects elevate the floor. Updated National Meteorological Service guidance and overnight observations ahead of resolution remain the key catalysts.