Uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for Manila's minimum temperature on August 25 drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with traders balancing potential for elevated nighttime readings near or above 31°C against cooler outcomes at or below 21°C. The southwest monsoon and associated convective patterns over the Philippines can suppress or enhance radiative cooling depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind shifts, while sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects in the capital provide a warm baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow over the next 48 hours, typical for late-August conditions where climatological minima average 24–26°C. Updated forecasts from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Manila on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 25?
31°C or higher 85%
21°C or below 83%
22°C 41%
28°C 40%
BARU
BARU
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
83%
22°C
41%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
28%
26°C
28%
27°C
28%
28°C
40%
29°C
21%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
85%
31°C or higher 85%
21°C or below 83%
22°C 41%
28°C 40%
BARU
BARU
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$145 Vol.
83%
22°C
$5 Vol.
41%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$5 Vol.
40%
29°C
$5 Vol.
21%
30°C
$5 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$145 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for Manila's minimum temperature on August 25 drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with traders balancing potential for elevated nighttime readings near or above 31°C against cooler outcomes at or below 21°C. The southwest monsoon and associated convective patterns over the Philippines can suppress or enhance radiative cooling depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind shifts, while sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects in the capital provide a warm baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow over the next 48 hours, typical for late-August conditions where climatological minima average 24–26°C. Updated forecasts from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$310Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 25, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for Manila's minimum temperature on August 25 drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with traders balancing potential for elevated nighttime readings near or above 31°C against cooler outcomes at or below 21°C. The southwest monsoon and associated convective patterns over the Philippines can suppress or enhance radiative cooling depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind shifts, while sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects in the capital provide a warm baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow over the next 48 hours, typical for late-August conditions where climatological minima average 24–26°C. Updated forecasts from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$310Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 25, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for Manila's minimum temperature on August 25 drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with traders balancing potential for elevated nighttime readings near or above 31°C against cooler outcomes at or below 21°C. The southwest monsoon and associated convective patterns over the Philippines can suppress or enhance radiative cooling depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind shifts, while sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects in the capital provide a warm baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow over the next 48 hours, typical for late-August conditions where climatological minima average 24–26°C. Updated forecasts from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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