Recent official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models converge on a daytime maximum near 33–34°C for Busan on August 23, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly advection of warm, humid maritime air. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and urban heat-island effects around the Gimhae station support readings in this range while limiting rapid intensification. Historical late-August climatology shows mean highs near 30–31°C, but recent warming trends and the absence of significant convective cooling have shifted trader expectations upward, producing the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (50%) and 35°C (34%). Minor model spread on timing of any isolated showers remains the main source of uncertainty ahead of final observations.