Recent ensemble forecasts from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and global models indicate Karachi's maximum temperature on August 25 will likely fall in the 31–33 °C range, with 32 °C holding the highest implied probability amid typical late-monsoon conditions. Persistent southwesterly flow, high humidity, and scattered afternoon convection or cloud cover are limiting daytime heating near seasonal norms of 88–90 °F, while clearer spells could allow brief rises toward 33 °C. Historical analogs from mid-to-late August show similar narrow daily ranges, and the absence of strong heat advection or major weather shifts in the past week has kept probabilities tightly clustered. Updated model runs and PMD guidance ahead of the date remain the key near-term catalysts.