Recent forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models aligns closely with long-term August climatology for Istanbul, where Sea of Marmara moderation and light northeasterly flow typically cap daily highs near 28–29°C. This scientific context drives the market-implied odds, with 28°C at 50.5% reflecting the narrow uncertainty band around historical averages of 28–30°C and absence of anomalous heat advection or blocking patterns. Urban heat island effects at official stations introduce minor variability, while stable high-pressure conditions and low precipitation probability reinforce the tight clustering on 28–29°C outcomes over higher or lower thresholds. Updated model runs through the day will refine final resolution criteria based on maximum recorded temperature.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
28°C 51%
29°C 34%
27°C 16%
30°C 2.6%
BARU
$14,764 Vol.
BARU
$14,764 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
16%
28°C
51%
29°C
34%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 51%
29°C 34%
27°C 16%
30°C 2.6%
BARU
$14,764 Vol.
BARU
$14,764 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
23°C or below
$455 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$883 Vol.
1%
25°C
$692 Vol.
1%
26°C
$854 Vol.
2%
27°C
$2,768 Vol.
16%
28°C
$3,251 Vol.
51%
29°C
$3,163 Vol.
34%
30°C
$945 Vol.
3%
31°C
$725 Vol.
1%
32°C
$616 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$412 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models aligns closely with long-term August climatology for Istanbul, where Sea of Marmara moderation and light northeasterly flow typically cap daily highs near 28–29°C. This scientific context drives the market-implied odds, with 28°C at 50.5% reflecting the narrow uncertainty band around historical averages of 28–30°C and absence of anomalous heat advection or blocking patterns. Urban heat island effects at official stations introduce minor variability, while stable high-pressure conditions and low precipitation probability reinforce the tight clustering on 28–29°C outcomes over higher or lower thresholds. Updated model runs through the day will refine final resolution criteria based on maximum recorded temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$14,764Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models aligns closely with long-term August climatology for Istanbul, where Sea of Marmara moderation and light northeasterly flow typically cap daily highs near 28–29°C. This scientific context drives the market-implied odds, with 28°C at 50.5% reflecting the narrow uncertainty band around historical averages of 28–30°C and absence of anomalous heat advection or blocking patterns. Urban heat island effects at official stations introduce minor variability, while stable high-pressure conditions and low precipitation probability reinforce the tight clustering on 28–29°C outcomes over higher or lower thresholds. Updated model runs through the day will refine final resolution criteria based on maximum recorded temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,764Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models aligns closely with long-term August climatology for Istanbul, where Sea of Marmara moderation and light northeasterly flow typically cap daily highs near 28–29°C. This scientific context drives the market-implied odds, with 28°C at 50.5% reflecting the narrow uncertainty band around historical averages of 28–30°C and absence of anomalous heat advection or blocking patterns. Urban heat island effects at official stations introduce minor variability, while stable high-pressure conditions and low precipitation probability reinforce the tight clustering on 28–29°C outcomes over higher or lower thresholds. Updated model runs through the day will refine final resolution criteria based on maximum recorded temperature.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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