PQ leads Quebec election betting markets at 71.5% implied probability due to consistent polling leads near 29% and strong francophone support that translates into an edge in seat projections under first-past-the-post. Recent Léger and Pallas Data surveys from late August show the CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette, gaining to 24% and closing the gap at the expense of the PLQ, which has fallen to 22% under Charles Milliard, while minor parties remain marginal. The October 5 election features a fragmented field, with the PQ positioned for a potential plurality or minority government amid voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and the party's delayed sovereignty referendum pledge. Traders appear to price in the PQ's regional advantages and by-election momentum despite the competitive popular vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise
Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise
PQ 72%
CAQ 26%
PLQ 3.0%
PCQ <1%
$882,343 Vol.
$882,343 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
PQ
72%
CAQ
26%
PLQ
3%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 72%
CAQ 26%
PLQ 3.0%
PCQ <1%
$882,343 Vol.
$882,343 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
PQ
$117,225 Vol.
72%
CAQ
$136,328 Vol.
26%
PLQ
$123,318 Vol.
3%
PCQ
$241,427 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).PQ leads Quebec election betting markets at 71.5% implied probability due to consistent polling leads near 29% and strong francophone support that translates into an edge in seat projections under first-past-the-post. Recent Léger and Pallas Data surveys from late August show the CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette, gaining to 24% and closing the gap at the expense of the PLQ, which has fallen to 22% under Charles Milliard, while minor parties remain marginal. The October 5 election features a fragmented field, with the PQ positioned for a potential plurality or minority government amid voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and the party's delayed sovereignty referendum pledge. Traders appear to price in the PQ's regional advantages and by-election momentum despite the competitive popular vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$882,343Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).PQ leads Quebec election betting markets at 71.5% implied probability due to consistent polling leads near 29% and strong francophone support that translates into an edge in seat projections under first-past-the-post. Recent Léger and Pallas Data surveys from late August show the CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette, gaining to 24% and closing the gap at the expense of the PLQ, which has fallen to 22% under Charles Milliard, while minor parties remain marginal. The October 5 election features a fragmented field, with the PQ positioned for a potential plurality or minority government amid voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and the party's delayed sovereignty referendum pledge. Traders appear to price in the PQ's regional advantages and by-election momentum despite the competitive popular vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$882,343Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...PQ leads Quebec election betting markets at 71.5% implied probability due to consistent polling leads near 29% and strong francophone support that translates into an edge in seat projections under first-past-the-post. Recent Léger and Pallas Data surveys from late August show the CAQ, now led by Christine Fréchette, gaining to 24% and closing the gap at the expense of the PLQ, which has fallen to 22% under Charles Milliard, while minor parties remain marginal. The October 5 election features a fragmented field, with the PQ positioned for a potential plurality or minority government amid voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and the party's delayed sovereignty referendum pledge. Traders appear to price in the PQ's regional advantages and by-election momentum despite the competitive popular vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes