United Russia maintains its position as the clear frontrunner to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its status as the incumbent ruling party with extensive administrative resources, regional structures, and alignment with the presidential administration. Recent preparations, including online primaries that automatically boosted war veterans and efforts to manage turnout in occupied territories, reinforce this dominance ahead of the vote. New People has gained traction in some independent and Kremlin-linked polls as the leading challenger for second place, occasionally surpassing the CPRF and LDPR, due to its positioning as a systemic alternative amid economic pressures and wartime conditions. Other parties face structural barriers, limited organization, and varying registration hurdles, while the mixed electoral system—combining party lists and single-member districts—further advantages established players with broad infrastructure. Trader consensus prices these dynamics into the current probabilities, with limited scope for late shifts before election day.