Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows the SPD at roughly 13 percent amid a fragmented field where the Left Party, CDU, AfD, and Greens cluster between 16 and 20 percent. National headwinds from successive SPD setbacks in other 2026 contests, combined with local pressures over housing shortages, security, and infrastructure reliability, have weighed on the party's standing in its traditional stronghold. The tight distribution of market probabilities across the 10-16 percent range reflects this competitive environment and the limited room for the SPD to expand its base before election day. Late-campaign developments such as turnout shifts among core voter groups or clearer differentiation on housing and migration policy could still alter the final share.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection de l'État de Berlin : partage des voix du SPD ?
Élection de l'État de Berlin : partage des voix du SPD ?
10-13 % 40%
13-16 % 32%
<10 % 16.8%
16 %+ 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
<10 %
17%
10-13 %
40%
13-16 %
32%
16 %+
15%
10-13 % 40%
13-16 % 32%
<10 % 16.8%
16 %+ 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
<10 %
$514 Vol.
17%
10-13 %
$715 Vol.
40%
13-16 %
$460 Vol.
32%
16 %+
$914 Vol.
15%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows the SPD at roughly 13 percent amid a fragmented field where the Left Party, CDU, AfD, and Greens cluster between 16 and 20 percent. National headwinds from successive SPD setbacks in other 2026 contests, combined with local pressures over housing shortages, security, and infrastructure reliability, have weighed on the party's standing in its traditional stronghold. The tight distribution of market probabilities across the 10-16 percent range reflects this competitive environment and the limited room for the SPD to expand its base before election day. Late-campaign developments such as turnout shifts among core voter groups or clearer differentiation on housing and migration policy could still alter the final share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$2,603Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows the SPD at roughly 13 percent amid a fragmented field where the Left Party, CDU, AfD, and Greens cluster between 16 and 20 percent. National headwinds from successive SPD setbacks in other 2026 contests, combined with local pressures over housing shortages, security, and infrastructure reliability, have weighed on the party's standing in its traditional stronghold. The tight distribution of market probabilities across the 10-16 percent range reflects this competitive environment and the limited room for the SPD to expand its base before election day. Late-campaign developments such as turnout shifts among core voter groups or clearer differentiation on housing and migration policy could still alter the final share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$2,603Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows the SPD at roughly 13 percent amid a fragmented field where the Left Party, CDU, AfD, and Greens cluster between 16 and 20 percent. National headwinds from successive SPD setbacks in other 2026 contests, combined with local pressures over housing shortages, security, and infrastructure reliability, have weighed on the party's standing in its traditional stronghold. The tight distribution of market probabilities across the 10-16 percent range reflects this competitive environment and the limited room for the SPD to expand its base before election day. Late-campaign developments such as turnout shifts among core voter groups or clearer differentiation on housing and migration policy could still alter the final share.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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