**Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data has shifted trader expectations for the August 2026 core PCE month-over-month reading, positioning the 0.3% outcome as the market favorite at 54% implied probability.** Core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% consensus, prompting major banks including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Nomura, and Bank of America to lift their August core PCE forecasts into the 0.24–0.30% range after the September 11 release. July core PCE printed 0.2% month-over-month, and the latest CPI surprise has increased the weight traders assign to a modest pickup in underlying inflation. The upcoming September 30 BEA release will also incorporate annual National Accounts revisions and methodology updates that analysts expect to weigh more on year-over-year figures than the near-term monthly profile. With the FOMC meeting the prior week, markets are pricing in this data as a key input for policy expectations, though the distribution remains concentrated between 0.2% and 0.3%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0.3% 55%
0.2% 38%
0.4% 1.7%
0.1% <1%
$11,656 Vol.
$11,656 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
≤-0.1%
1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
1%
0.2%
38%
0.3%
55%
0.4%
2%
0.5%+
1%
0.3% 55%
0.2% 38%
0.4% 1.7%
0.1% <1%
$11,656 Vol.
$11,656 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
≤-0.1%
$603 Vol.
1%
0.0%
$646 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$759 Vol.
1%
0.2%
$5,426 Vol.
38%
0.3%
$3,170 Vol.
55%
0.4%
$332 Vol.
2%
0.5%+
$719 Vol.
1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data has shifted trader expectations for the August 2026 core PCE month-over-month reading, positioning the 0.3% outcome as the market favorite at 54% implied probability.**
Core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% consensus, prompting major banks including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Nomura, and Bank of America to lift their August core PCE forecasts into the 0.24–0.30% range after the September 11 release. July core PCE printed 0.2% month-over-month, and the latest CPI surprise has increased the weight traders assign to a modest pickup in underlying inflation.
The upcoming September 30 BEA release will also incorporate annual National Accounts revisions and methodology updates that analysts expect to weigh more on year-over-year figures than the near-term monthly profile. With the FOMC meeting the prior week, markets are pricing in this data as a key input for policy expectations, though the distribution remains concentrated between 0.2% and 0.3%.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$11,656Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data has shifted trader expectations for the August 2026 core PCE month-over-month reading, positioning the 0.3% outcome as the market favorite at 54% implied probability.**
Core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% consensus, prompting major banks including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Nomura, and Bank of America to lift their August core PCE forecasts into the 0.24–0.30% range after the September 11 release. July core PCE printed 0.2% month-over-month, and the latest CPI surprise has increased the weight traders assign to a modest pickup in underlying inflation.
The upcoming September 30 BEA release will also incorporate annual National Accounts revisions and methodology updates that analysts expect to weigh more on year-over-year figures than the near-term monthly profile. With the FOMC meeting the prior week, markets are pricing in this data as a key input for policy expectations, though the distribution remains concentrated between 0.2% and 0.3%.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$11,656Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data has shifted trader expectations for the August 2026 core PCE month-over-month reading, positioning the 0.3% outcome as the market favorite at 54% implied probability.** Core CPI rose 0.3% versus 0.2% consensus, prompting major banks including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Nomura, and Bank of America to lift their August core PCE forecasts into the 0.24–0.30% range after the September 11 release. July core PCE printed 0.2% month-over-month, and the latest CPI surprise has increased the weight traders assign to a modest pickup in underlying inflation. The upcoming September 30 BEA release will also incorporate annual National Accounts revisions and methodology updates that analysts expect to weigh more on year-over-year figures than the near-term monthly profile. With the FOMC meeting the prior week, markets are pricing in this data as a key input for policy expectations, though the distribution remains concentrated between 0.2% and 0.3%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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