Recent July core PCE printed at 0.2% month-over-month, matching consensus and leaving the annual rate at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. July CPI’s softer 0.1% headline and 0.2% core readings have tempered some hawkish bets ahead of the September FOMC meeting, yet services prices, shelter costs, and resilient consumer spending continue to support expectations of sticky underlying inflation. With August data scheduled for late September release, Polymarket odds reflect this balance: the 0.3% and 0.2% outcomes trade nearly even at 37.5% and 36.5% implied probability, while a 0.4% print holds 20.5%. Traders weigh mixed high-frequency indicators and the risk that any reacceleration could reinforce higher-for-longer policy expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0.3% 37%
0.2% 36%
0.4% 13%
0.0% 12.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
≤-0.1%
3%
0.0%
12%
0.1%
11%
0.2%
36%
0.3%
37%
0.4%
13%
0.5%+
2%
0.3% 37%
0.2% 36%
0.4% 13%
0.0% 12.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
≤-0.1%
$37 Vol.
3%
0.0%
$37 Vol.
12%
0.1%
$78 Vol.
11%
0.2%
$602 Vol.
36%
0.3%
$481 Vol.
37%
0.4%
$110 Vol.
13%
0.5%+
$128 Vol.
2%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July core PCE printed at 0.2% month-over-month, matching consensus and leaving the annual rate at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. July CPI’s softer 0.1% headline and 0.2% core readings have tempered some hawkish bets ahead of the September FOMC meeting, yet services prices, shelter costs, and resilient consumer spending continue to support expectations of sticky underlying inflation. With August data scheduled for late September release, Polymarket odds reflect this balance: the 0.3% and 0.2% outcomes trade nearly even at 37.5% and 36.5% implied probability, while a 0.4% print holds 20.5%. Traders weigh mixed high-frequency indicators and the risk that any reacceleration could reinforce higher-for-longer policy expectations.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,472Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July core PCE printed at 0.2% month-over-month, matching consensus and leaving the annual rate at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. July CPI’s softer 0.1% headline and 0.2% core readings have tempered some hawkish bets ahead of the September FOMC meeting, yet services prices, shelter costs, and resilient consumer spending continue to support expectations of sticky underlying inflation. With August data scheduled for late September release, Polymarket odds reflect this balance: the 0.3% and 0.2% outcomes trade nearly even at 37.5% and 36.5% implied probability, while a 0.4% print holds 20.5%. Traders weigh mixed high-frequency indicators and the risk that any reacceleration could reinforce higher-for-longer policy expectations.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,472Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent July core PCE printed at 0.2% month-over-month, matching consensus and leaving the annual rate at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. July CPI’s softer 0.1% headline and 0.2% core readings have tempered some hawkish bets ahead of the September FOMC meeting, yet services prices, shelter costs, and resilient consumer spending continue to support expectations of sticky underlying inflation. With August data scheduled for late September release, Polymarket odds reflect this balance: the 0.3% and 0.2% outcomes trade nearly even at 37.5% and 36.5% implied probability, while a 0.4% print holds 20.5%. Traders weigh mixed high-frequency indicators and the risk that any reacceleration could reinforce higher-for-longer policy expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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