China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set at the National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome. First-half results showed 4.7 percent expansion, with Q1 at 5.0 percent before Q2 cooled to 4.3 percent amid softening manufacturing PMI and persistent weakness in retail sales and household consumption. Exports and state-led manufacturing and infrastructure investment have provided the main support, while property-sector drag and subdued private demand continue to limit upside. Analysts from the IMF, OECD, Reuters polls, and major banks cluster forecasts between 4.2 percent and 4.8 percent, consistent with incremental fiscal and monetary measures rather than large-scale stimulus. July PMI readings below 50 have heightened attention to potential policy adjustments before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,0–5,0 % 89%
5,0–6,0 % 10.7%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
8,0–9,0 % 1.1%
$876,819 Vol.
$876,819 Vol.
31 janv. 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
1%
4,0–5,0 %
89%
5,0–6,0 %
11%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 89%
5,0–6,0 % 10.7%
3,0–4,0 % 1.1%
8,0–9,0 % 1.1%
$876,819 Vol.
$876,819 Vol.
31 janv. 2026
<1,0 %
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$80,220 Vol.
1%
4,0–5,0 %
$219,722 Vol.
89%
5,0–6,0 %
$78,494 Vol.
11%
6,0-7,0 %
$83,563 Vol.
<1%
7,0–8,0 %
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$53,031 Vol.
1%
9,0 %+
$115,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set at the National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome. First-half results showed 4.7 percent expansion, with Q1 at 5.0 percent before Q2 cooled to 4.3 percent amid softening manufacturing PMI and persistent weakness in retail sales and household consumption. Exports and state-led manufacturing and infrastructure investment have provided the main support, while property-sector drag and subdued private demand continue to limit upside. Analysts from the IMF, OECD, Reuters polls, and major banks cluster forecasts between 4.2 percent and 4.8 percent, consistent with incremental fiscal and monetary measures rather than large-scale stimulus. July PMI readings below 50 have heightened attention to potential policy adjustments before year-end.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$876,819Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set at the National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome. First-half results showed 4.7 percent expansion, with Q1 at 5.0 percent before Q2 cooled to 4.3 percent amid softening manufacturing PMI and persistent weakness in retail sales and household consumption. Exports and state-led manufacturing and infrastructure investment have provided the main support, while property-sector drag and subdued private demand continue to limit upside. Analysts from the IMF, OECD, Reuters polls, and major banks cluster forecasts between 4.2 percent and 4.8 percent, consistent with incremental fiscal and monetary measures rather than large-scale stimulus. July PMI readings below 50 have heightened attention to potential policy adjustments before year-end.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$876,819Date de fin
31 janv. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent, set at the National People’s Congress, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0 percent outcome. First-half results showed 4.7 percent expansion, with Q1 at 5.0 percent before Q2 cooled to 4.3 percent amid softening manufacturing PMI and persistent weakness in retail sales and household consumption. Exports and state-led manufacturing and infrastructure investment have provided the main support, while property-sector drag and subdued private demand continue to limit upside. Analysts from the IMF, OECD, Reuters polls, and major banks cluster forecasts between 4.2 percent and 4.8 percent, consistent with incremental fiscal and monetary measures rather than large-scale stimulus. July PMI readings below 50 have heightened attention to potential policy adjustments before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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