The closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects offsetting pressures from persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient economy. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50–3.75% range since December 2025, with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-August. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, yet supply shocks and elevated readings over multiple years prompted a hawkish June dot plot showing a 3.8% median end-2026 projection and three dissents favoring a hike at the July FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced expectations of possible tightening, tempered by softer recent inflation prints and solid but non-accelerating growth. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path and trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
49% chance
$7,597,045 Vol.
$7,597,045 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Oui
49% chance
$7,597,045 Vol.
$7,597,045 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects offsetting pressures from persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient economy. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50–3.75% range since December 2025, with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-August. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, yet supply shocks and elevated readings over multiple years prompted a hawkish June dot plot showing a 3.8% median end-2026 projection and three dissents favoring a hike at the July FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced expectations of possible tightening, tempered by softer recent inflation prints and solid but non-accelerating growth. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path and trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,597,045Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects offsetting pressures from persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient economy. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50–3.75% range since December 2025, with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-August. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, yet supply shocks and elevated readings over multiple years prompted a hawkish June dot plot showing a 3.8% median end-2026 projection and three dissents favoring a hike at the July FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced expectations of possible tightening, tempered by softer recent inflation prints and solid but non-accelerating growth. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path and trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,597,045Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects offsetting pressures from persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient economy. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50–3.75% range since December 2025, with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-August. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, yet supply shocks and elevated readings over multiple years prompted a hawkish June dot plot showing a 3.8% median end-2026 projection and three dissents favoring a hike at the July FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced expectations of possible tightening, tempered by softer recent inflation prints and solid but non-accelerating growth. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path and trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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