Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with the Supreme Court's June rulings shielding Federal Reserve officials from at-will removal while expanding presidential authority over other agencies, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Traders cite the absence of direct attacks on Warsh—despite escalating White House pressure for rate cuts amid sticky inflation above the 2% target and September FOMC deliberations—and Warsh's positioning as an institutionalist focused on price stability. Key swing factors include any post-meeting showdown if the Fed hikes rates or persistent administration criticism that could test the legal firewall before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour6% chance
$14,169 Vol.
$14,169 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
6% chance
$14,169 Vol.
$14,169 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with the Supreme Court's June rulings shielding Federal Reserve officials from at-will removal while expanding presidential authority over other agencies, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Traders cite the absence of direct attacks on Warsh—despite escalating White House pressure for rate cuts amid sticky inflation above the 2% target and September FOMC deliberations—and Warsh's positioning as an institutionalist focused on price stability. Key swing factors include any post-meeting showdown if the Fed hikes rates or persistent administration criticism that could test the legal firewall before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$14,169Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with the Supreme Court's June rulings shielding Federal Reserve officials from at-will removal while expanding presidential authority over other agencies, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Traders cite the absence of direct attacks on Warsh—despite escalating White House pressure for rate cuts amid sticky inflation above the 2% target and September FOMC deliberations—and Warsh's positioning as an institutionalist focused on price stability. Key swing factors include any post-meeting showdown if the Fed hikes rates or persistent administration criticism that could test the legal firewall before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$14,169Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with the Supreme Court's June rulings shielding Federal Reserve officials from at-will removal while expanding presidential authority over other agencies, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Traders cite the absence of direct attacks on Warsh—despite escalating White House pressure for rate cuts amid sticky inflation above the 2% target and September FOMC deliberations—and Warsh's positioning as an institutionalist focused on price stability. Key swing factors include any post-meeting showdown if the Fed hikes rates or persistent administration criticism that could test the legal firewall before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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