Persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and tariffs, alongside a resilient labor market with strong May job gains, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike by year-end, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 66% odds for such a move. The FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since late 2025, but April minutes highlighted officials' willingness to consider policy firming if price pressures remain above the 2% goal, and recent speeches from regional presidents have reinforced that hawkish tilt. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's June 16-17 meeting will likely keep rates unchanged while updating projections, with upcoming CPI and employment data serving as key swing factors for any late-2026 tightening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$157,566 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Réunion de juin
1%
Réunion de juillet
7%
Réunion de septembre
25%
Réunion d'octobre
31%
$157,566 Vol.
Réunion de juin
$16,788 Vol.
1%
Réunion de juillet
$2,671 Vol.
7%
Réunion de septembre
$4,014 Vol.
25%
Réunion d'octobre
$2,785 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and tariffs, alongside a resilient labor market with strong May job gains, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike by year-end, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 66% odds for such a move. The FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since late 2025, but April minutes highlighted officials' willingness to consider policy firming if price pressures remain above the 2% goal, and recent speeches from regional presidents have reinforced that hawkish tilt. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's June 16-17 meeting will likely keep rates unchanged while updating projections, with upcoming CPI and employment data serving as key swing factors for any late-2026 tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$157,566Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and tariffs, alongside a resilient labor market with strong May job gains, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike by year-end, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 66% odds for such a move. The FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since late 2025, but April minutes highlighted officials' willingness to consider policy firming if price pressures remain above the 2% goal, and recent speeches from regional presidents have reinforced that hawkish tilt. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's June 16-17 meeting will likely keep rates unchanged while updating projections, with upcoming CPI and employment data serving as key swing factors for any late-2026 tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$157,566Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and tariffs, alongside a resilient labor market with strong May job gains, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike by year-end, with CME FedWatch pricing roughly 66% odds for such a move. The FOMC has held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since late 2025, but April minutes highlighted officials' willingness to consider policy firming if price pressures remain above the 2% goal, and recent speeches from regional presidents have reinforced that hawkish tilt. Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's June 16-17 meeting will likely keep rates unchanged while updating projections, with upcoming CPI and employment data serving as key swing factors for any late-2026 tightening.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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