Ongoing US sanctions, naval pressures, and restricted oil exports continue to constrain Iran's foreign currency inflows, sustaining depreciation pressure on the rial amid high inflation and monetary expansion. Free-market rates have recently hovered near 2.2–2.24 million rials per dollar, aligning with the leading bin while reflecting persistent economic isolation and limited access to global finance. Trader positioning remains balanced because any diplomatic easing or resumed Chinese purchases could support modest stabilization, whereas escalated secondary sanctions or further export disruptions could accelerate weakening toward higher bins. Historical patterns of rial volatility during sanctions episodes underscore the sensitivity to near-term policy signals and oil revenue flows through September.