Persistent inflation data has anchored trader positioning ahead of the Banco de la República’s October policy meeting, with August CPI rising to 6.24% year-over-year—above consensus and marking a two-year high—after a modest July dip. This reinforces the current 12% benchmark rate, held since the July pause following June’s 75 basis-point hike, as markets price a 51% probability of no change. Core inflation near 6% and elevated expectations continue to support the 23% odds of a 25 basis-point increase, while downside scenarios remain subdued. The September 30 meeting and upcoming data releases will provide the clearest signals on whether the board maintains its restrictive stance or resumes tightening to address price pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 51%
Hausse de 25 points de base 23%
Baisse de 25 points de base 8%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base 6.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 oct. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
3%
Baisse de 25 points de base
8%
Aucun changement
51%
Hausse de 25 points de base
23%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
12%
Aucun changement 51%
Hausse de 25 points de base 23%
Baisse de 25 points de base 8%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base 6.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 oct. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$152 Vol.
3%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$572 Vol.
8%
Aucun changement
$1,195 Vol.
51%
Hausse de 25 points de base
$200 Vol.
23%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
$40 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Persistent inflation data has anchored trader positioning ahead of the Banco de la República’s October policy meeting, with August CPI rising to 6.24% year-over-year—above consensus and marking a two-year high—after a modest July dip. This reinforces the current 12% benchmark rate, held since the July pause following June’s 75 basis-point hike, as markets price a 51% probability of no change. Core inflation near 6% and elevated expectations continue to support the 23% odds of a 25 basis-point increase, while downside scenarios remain subdued. The September 30 meeting and upcoming data releases will provide the clearest signals on whether the board maintains its restrictive stance or resumes tightening to address price pressures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Volume
$2,159Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Persistent inflation data has anchored trader positioning ahead of the Banco de la República’s October policy meeting, with August CPI rising to 6.24% year-over-year—above consensus and marking a two-year high—after a modest July dip. This reinforces the current 12% benchmark rate, held since the July pause following June’s 75 basis-point hike, as markets price a 51% probability of no change. Core inflation near 6% and elevated expectations continue to support the 23% odds of a 25 basis-point increase, while downside scenarios remain subdued. The September 30 meeting and upcoming data releases will provide the clearest signals on whether the board maintains its restrictive stance or resumes tightening to address price pressures.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$2,159Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation data has anchored trader positioning ahead of the Banco de la República’s October policy meeting, with August CPI rising to 6.24% year-over-year—above consensus and marking a two-year high—after a modest July dip. This reinforces the current 12% benchmark rate, held since the July pause following June’s 75 basis-point hike, as markets price a 51% probability of no change. Core inflation near 6% and elevated expectations continue to support the 23% odds of a 25 basis-point increase, while downside scenarios remain subdued. The September 30 meeting and upcoming data releases will provide the clearest signals on whether the board maintains its restrictive stance or resumes tightening to address price pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
La Banque centrale de Colombie ne procédera-t-elle à aucun changement du taux d'intérêt directeur lors de la réunion de septembre ?
69%
Oui
La Banque du Brésil réduira-t-elle l'objectif du taux Selic de 25 points de base lors de la réunion de novembre ?
61%
Oui
La Banque du Brésil réduira-t-elle l'objectif du taux Selic de 25 pdb lors de la réunion de septembre ?
98%
Oui
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