Recent Reuters reporting and BOJ sources indicate the central bank is positioned for a September 17-18 rate increase, citing persistent upside inflation risks, yen weakness prompting coordinated FX intervention, and accommodative financial conditions after the July hold at 1.0%. July Outlook and Summary of Opinions highlighted core CPI likely exceeding the 2% target and openness to accelerating the normalization pace beyond the prior twice-yearly cadence. These factors have driven market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike to 84%, with no-change pricing at 16% reflecting residual data or global uncertainty. Traders will monitor August inflation prints and any pre-meeting guidance for shifts in this consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour25 bps increase 84%
No change 16%
50+ bps increase 1.1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$313,462 Vol.
$313,462 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
16%
25 bps increase
84%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 84%
No change 16%
50+ bps increase 1.1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$313,462 Vol.
$313,462 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
16%
25 bps increase
84%
50+ bps increase
1%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Reuters reporting and BOJ sources indicate the central bank is positioned for a September 17-18 rate increase, citing persistent upside inflation risks, yen weakness prompting coordinated FX intervention, and accommodative financial conditions after the July hold at 1.0%. July Outlook and Summary of Opinions highlighted core CPI likely exceeding the 2% target and openness to accelerating the normalization pace beyond the prior twice-yearly cadence. These factors have driven market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike to 84%, with no-change pricing at 16% reflecting residual data or global uncertainty. Traders will monitor August inflation prints and any pre-meeting guidance for shifts in this consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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