Recent August data showing the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains has anchored trader expectations for September, as the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Structural constraints from slower labor-force growth due to demographics and reduced immigration continue to offset subdued hiring, keeping the rate stable near recent levels rather than pushing it higher. Market-implied odds favor 4.1% as the most likely outcome, with 4.0% and 4.2% as close alternatives, reflecting the narrow range observed in prior months amid steady participation rates and contained layoffs. The BLS September employment report, due October 2, represents the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if job growth or labor-force dynamics deviate from the recent pattern.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,1 % 33%
4,2 % 26%
4,0 % 16%
4,3 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 oct. 2026
≤3,8 %
5%
3,9 %
6%
4,0 %
16%
4,1 %
33%
4,2 %
26%
4,3 %
11%
4,4 %
6%
4,5 %
8%
≥ 4,6 %
4%
4,1 % 33%
4,2 % 26%
4,0 % 16%
4,3 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 oct. 2026
≤3,8 %
$589 Vol.
5%
3,9 %
$105 Vol.
6%
4,0 %
$62 Vol.
16%
4,1 %
$657 Vol.
33%
4,2 %
$84 Vol.
26%
4,3 %
$62 Vol.
11%
4,4 %
$176 Vol.
6%
4,5 %
$505 Vol.
8%
≥ 4,6 %
$505 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August data showing the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains has anchored trader expectations for September, as the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Structural constraints from slower labor-force growth due to demographics and reduced immigration continue to offset subdued hiring, keeping the rate stable near recent levels rather than pushing it higher. Market-implied odds favor 4.1% as the most likely outcome, with 4.0% and 4.2% as close alternatives, reflecting the narrow range observed in prior months amid steady participation rates and contained layoffs. The BLS September employment report, due October 2, represents the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if job growth or labor-force dynamics deviate from the recent pattern.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,746Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August data showing the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains has anchored trader expectations for September, as the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Structural constraints from slower labor-force growth due to demographics and reduced immigration continue to offset subdued hiring, keeping the rate stable near recent levels rather than pushing it higher. Market-implied odds favor 4.1% as the most likely outcome, with 4.0% and 4.2% as close alternatives, reflecting the narrow range observed in prior months amid steady participation rates and contained layoffs. The BLS September employment report, due October 2, represents the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if job growth or labor-force dynamics deviate from the recent pattern.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$2,746Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent August data showing the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains has anchored trader expectations for September, as the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Structural constraints from slower labor-force growth due to demographics and reduced immigration continue to offset subdued hiring, keeping the rate stable near recent levels rather than pushing it higher. Market-implied odds favor 4.1% as the most likely outcome, with 4.0% and 4.2% as close alternatives, reflecting the narrow range observed in prior months amid steady participation rates and contained layoffs. The BLS September employment report, due October 2, represents the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if job growth or labor-force dynamics deviate from the recent pattern.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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