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icon for Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ?
Politique·RBNZ

Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ?

icon for Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ?
Politique·RBNZ

Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ?

oct. 28

déc. 9

oct. 28

déc. 9

Augmentation de 25 points de base 74%

Pas de changement 27%

Baisse de 25 points de base 1.3%

Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 1.1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Augmentation de 25 points de base 74%

Pas de changement 27%

Baisse de 25 points de base 1.3%

Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 1.1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Baisse de plus de 50 points de base

$127 Vol.

1%

Baisse de 25 points de base

$218 Vol.

1%

Pas de changement

$702 Vol.

27%

Augmentation de 25 points de base

$3,859 Vol.

74%

Hausse de plus de 50 points de base

$254 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation data and RBNZ communications are anchoring trader expectations for a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate hike at the December 9 Monetary Policy Statement. Annual CPI reached 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter, driven by elevated fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, though core measures remain nearer the 1-3% target band. Following the September 2 lift to 2.75%, Assistant Governor Karen Silk indicated policymakers favor assessing prior tightening effects before acting again, reducing October odds and concentrating pricing on December. Bank forecasts from ANZ and ASB align with an end-2026 OCR near 3%, while futures-implied paths show roughly 19 basis points of additional tightening by year-end. Key upcoming releases include September quarter CPI and labor data that could shift the balance of risks around the current 73.5% probability for the 25 basis point increase.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$5,161
Date de fin
9 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 7:44 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation data and RBNZ communications are anchoring trader expectations for a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate hike at the December 9 Monetary Policy Statement. Annual CPI reached 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter, driven by elevated fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, though core measures remain nearer the 1-3% target band. Following the September 2 lift to 2.75%, Assistant Governor Karen Silk indicated policymakers favor assessing prior tightening effects before acting again, reducing October odds and concentrating pricing on December. Bank forecasts from ANZ and ASB align with an end-2026 OCR near 3%, while futures-implied paths show roughly 19 basis points of additional tightening by year-end. Key upcoming releases include September quarter CPI and labor data that could shift the balance of risks around the current 73.5% probability for the 25 basis point increase.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$5,161
Date de fin
9 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 7:44 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?

No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?

89%
icon for No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

69%
icon for Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?

80%

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Augmentation de 25 points de base » à 74%, suivi de « Pas de changement » à 27%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 74¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 74% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 8, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ? », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ? » est « Augmentation de 25 points de base » à 74%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 74% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Pas de changement » à 27%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Décision de la Reserve Bank of New Zealand en décembre ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.