**Recent easing in Australian inflation, with the June 2026 CPI declining to 3.8% year-over-year from 4.0% in May, has reinforced trader expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate steady at 4.35% for its September decision.** This follows the RBA's May hike to the current level and aligns with market-implied odds showing overwhelming consensus for no change at 92.5%. Elevated core measures, including the trimmed-mean CPI at 3.6%, alongside a still-tight labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, support the central bank's cautious stance amid ongoing inflation above the 2–3% target. While softer goods prices and moderating fuel costs contributed to the June print, analysts note that further progress toward target would be needed to shift the rate path. A sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration or renewed disinflation could introduce downside risks to the hold scenario, though current data and recent communications keep the implied probability of a 25 basis point move below 7%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNo change 93%
25 bps decrease 6.6%
25 bps increase 2.7%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 sept. 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
93%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 93%
25 bps decrease 6.6%
25 bps increase 2.7%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 sept. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$437 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$184 Vol.
7%
No change
$1,488 Vol.
93%
25 bps increase
$296 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$113 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent easing in Australian inflation, with the June 2026 CPI declining to 3.8% year-over-year from 4.0% in May, has reinforced trader expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate steady at 4.35% for its September decision.** This follows the RBA's May hike to the current level and aligns with market-implied odds showing overwhelming consensus for no change at 92.5%. Elevated core measures, including the trimmed-mean CPI at 3.6%, alongside a still-tight labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, support the central bank's cautious stance amid ongoing inflation above the 2–3% target. While softer goods prices and moderating fuel costs contributed to the June print, analysts note that further progress toward target would be needed to shift the rate path. A sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration or renewed disinflation could introduce downside risks to the hold scenario, though current data and recent communications keep the implied probability of a 25 basis point move below 7%.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,518Date de fin
29 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent easing in Australian inflation, with the June 2026 CPI declining to 3.8% year-over-year from 4.0% in May, has reinforced trader expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate steady at 4.35% for its September decision.** This follows the RBA's May hike to the current level and aligns with market-implied odds showing overwhelming consensus for no change at 92.5%. Elevated core measures, including the trimmed-mean CPI at 3.6%, alongside a still-tight labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, support the central bank's cautious stance amid ongoing inflation above the 2–3% target. While softer goods prices and moderating fuel costs contributed to the June print, analysts note that further progress toward target would be needed to shift the rate path. A sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration or renewed disinflation could introduce downside risks to the hold scenario, though current data and recent communications keep the implied probability of a 25 basis point move below 7%.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$2,518Date de fin
29 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent easing in Australian inflation, with the June 2026 CPI declining to 3.8% year-over-year from 4.0% in May, has reinforced trader expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate steady at 4.35% for its September decision.** This follows the RBA's May hike to the current level and aligns with market-implied odds showing overwhelming consensus for no change at 92.5%. Elevated core measures, including the trimmed-mean CPI at 3.6%, alongside a still-tight labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, support the central bank's cautious stance amid ongoing inflation above the 2–3% target. While softer goods prices and moderating fuel costs contributed to the June print, analysts note that further progress toward target would be needed to shift the rate path. A sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration or renewed disinflation could introduce downside risks to the hold scenario, though current data and recent communications keep the implied probability of a 25 basis point move below 7%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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