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icon for Where will it rain on August 9?

Where will it rain on August 9?

icon for Where will it rain on August 9?

Where will it rain on August 9?

Aug 10

Aug 11

Aug 10

Aug 11

NEW
Aug 10, 2026
Polymarket

$1,218 Vol.

Polymarket

Singapore

$0 Vol.

50%

Jakarta

$5 Vol.

51%

Mumbai

$0 Vol.

51%

Manila

$376 Vol.

54%

Tokyo

$0 Vol.

49%

Lagos

$0 Vol.

50%

Bangkok

$1 Vol.

50%

Hong Kong

$1 Vol.

50%

Seoul (Incheon)

$56 Vol.

47%

Taipei

$496 Vol.

-

Colombo

$1 Vol.

51%

Dhaka

$1 Vol.

51%

Kuala Lumpur

$1 Vol.

51%

London

$181 Vol.

46%

Dubai

$98 Vol.

95%

São Paulo

$0 Vol.

49%

Sydney

$0 Vol.

53%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed city records measurable precipitation on August 9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the primary driver shaping precipitation odds for August 9, 2026, as an upper-level trough promotes instability and Gulf moisture across the central and eastern United States, per National Weather Service and Weather Prediction Center guidance. In contrast, persistent high pressure supports hot, dry conditions with minimal rainfall potential in the Desert Southwest, Intermountain West, and Pacific Northwest, where elevated wildfire risk persists. Ongoing El Niño conditions, with the Niño-3.4 index at +1.2°C and strengthening through year-end, provide broader context for moisture transport patterns, though short-term model runs remain the key variable. Traders should monitor updated NWS mesoscale precipitation discussions and hourly model consensus for shifts in coverage or intensity thresholds relevant to market resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed city records measurable precipitation on August 9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city.

A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.

Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,218
End Date
Aug 10, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed city records measurable precipitation on August 9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed city records measurable precipitation on August 9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the primary driver shaping precipitation odds for August 9, 2026, as an upper-level trough promotes instability and Gulf moisture across the central and eastern United States, per National Weather Service and Weather Prediction Center guidance. In contrast, persistent high pressure supports hot, dry conditions with minimal rainfall potential in the Desert Southwest, Intermountain West, and Pacific Northwest, where elevated wildfire risk persists. Ongoing El Niño conditions, with the Niño-3.4 index at +1.2°C and strengthening through year-end, provide broader context for moisture transport patterns, though short-term model runs remain the key variable. Traders should monitor updated NWS mesoscale precipitation discussions and hourly model consensus for shifts in coverage or intensity thresholds relevant to market resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed city records measurable precipitation on August 9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city.

A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.

Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,218
End Date
Aug 10, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:24 AM ET

Resolution Source

www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed city records measurable precipitation on August 9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Where will it rain on August 9?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Manila" at 54%, followed by "Taipei" at 54%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Where will it rain on August 9?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Where will it rain on August 9?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Where will it rain on August 9?" is "Manila" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Taipei" at 54%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Where will it rain on August 9?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.