Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-124 tornado bins for September 2026 because long-term climatology centers near 66 confirmed events, with high year-to-year variability driven by tropical cyclone landfalls and frontal systems. A developing El Niño pattern, already evident in late-summer sea-surface temperatures, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and associated tornado outbreaks while favoring drier conditions across the eastern U.S., tilting consensus toward the middle bins. Early September convective outlooks show only marginal severe risk, underscoring uncertainty over whether isolated tropical remnants or stronger mid-latitude impulses will elevate counts above average or keep totals subdued.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
25 - 49 54%
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 51%
125 or more 46%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
42%
25 - 49
54%
50 - 74
52%
75 - 124
51%
125 or more
46%
25 - 49 54%
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 51%
125 or more 46%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$0 Vol.
42%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
54%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
52%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
51%
125 or more
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-124 tornado bins for September 2026 because long-term climatology centers near 66 confirmed events, with high year-to-year variability driven by tropical cyclone landfalls and frontal systems. A developing El Niño pattern, already evident in late-summer sea-surface temperatures, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and associated tornado outbreaks while favoring drier conditions across the eastern U.S., tilting consensus toward the middle bins. Early September convective outlooks show only marginal severe risk, underscoring uncertainty over whether isolated tropical remnants or stronger mid-latitude impulses will elevate counts above average or keep totals subdued.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-124 tornado bins for September 2026 because long-term climatology centers near 66 confirmed events, with high year-to-year variability driven by tropical cyclone landfalls and frontal systems. A developing El Niño pattern, already evident in late-summer sea-surface temperatures, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and associated tornado outbreaks while favoring drier conditions across the eastern U.S., tilting consensus toward the middle bins. Early September convective outlooks show only marginal severe risk, underscoring uncertainty over whether isolated tropical remnants or stronger mid-latitude impulses will elevate counts above average or keep totals subdued.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-124 tornado bins for September 2026 because long-term climatology centers near 66 confirmed events, with high year-to-year variability driven by tropical cyclone landfalls and frontal systems. A developing El Niño pattern, already evident in late-summer sea-surface temperatures, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and associated tornado outbreaks while favoring drier conditions across the eastern U.S., tilting consensus toward the middle bins. Early September convective outlooks show only marginal severe risk, underscoring uncertainty over whether isolated tropical remnants or stronger mid-latitude impulses will elevate counts above average or keep totals subdued.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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