Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature near 31°C in Milan on August 31 under predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and negligible precipitation risk, consistent with typical late-summer Po Valley conditions. This drives the near-even market-implied odds between 30°C and 31°C, as small differences in afternoon cloud cover, urban heat retention, or model bias can shift the exact peak by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima average around 28–30°C, but current high-pressure dominance supports the warmer outlook, with resolution hinging on official observational data amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 31?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 31?
31°C 45%
30°C 37%
29°C 8%
32°C 6%
NEW
$14,213 Vol.
NEW
$14,213 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
8%
30°C
37%
31°C
45%
32°C
6%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
31°C 45%
30°C 37%
29°C 8%
32°C 6%
NEW
$14,213 Vol.
NEW
$14,213 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
$1,540 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,158 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$660 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$257 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$322 Vol.
1%
29°C
$931 Vol.
8%
30°C
$2,116 Vol.
37%
31°C
$5,062 Vol.
45%
32°C
$1,661 Vol.
6%
33°C
$374 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature near 31°C in Milan on August 31 under predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and negligible precipitation risk, consistent with typical late-summer Po Valley conditions. This drives the near-even market-implied odds between 30°C and 31°C, as small differences in afternoon cloud cover, urban heat retention, or model bias can shift the exact peak by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima average around 28–30°C, but current high-pressure dominance supports the warmer outlook, with resolution hinging on official observational data amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$14,213End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature near 31°C in Milan on August 31 under predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and negligible precipitation risk, consistent with typical late-summer Po Valley conditions. This drives the near-even market-implied odds between 30°C and 31°C, as small differences in afternoon cloud cover, urban heat retention, or model bias can shift the exact peak by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima average around 28–30°C, but current high-pressure dominance supports the warmer outlook, with resolution hinging on official observational data amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,213End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature near 31°C in Milan on August 31 under predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and negligible precipitation risk, consistent with typical late-summer Po Valley conditions. This drives the near-even market-implied odds between 30°C and 31°C, as small differences in afternoon cloud cover, urban heat retention, or model bias can shift the exact peak by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima average around 28–30°C, but current high-pressure dominance supports the warmer outlook, with resolution hinging on official observational data amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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