Persistent summer heat and southerly flow maintain above-normal temperatures across Central Texas, with official guidance from sources like the National Weather Service pointing to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s for September 1. Recent late-August observations show consistent readings near or above 98°F under high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light winds that limit mixing and allow surface warming to continue. Forecast models align on limited moisture and no significant frontal passage before the date, supporting the market-implied concentration around 98–101°F while acknowledging typical model uncertainty and potential for slight revisions from afternoon convection or wind shifts. Historical September 1 averages near 94°F underscore the current anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 1?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 1?
98-99°F 43%
100-101°F 27%
96-97°F 14%
92-93°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
89°F or below
2%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
11%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
14%
98-99°F
43%
100-101°F
27%
102-103°F
6%
104-105°F
4%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 43%
100-101°F 27%
96-97°F 14%
92-93°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
89°F or below
$106 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$18 Vol.
3%
92-93°F
$31 Vol.
11%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$77 Vol.
14%
98-99°F
$2 Vol.
43%
100-101°F
$444 Vol.
27%
102-103°F
$8 Vol.
6%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
4%
106-107°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent summer heat and southerly flow maintain above-normal temperatures across Central Texas, with official guidance from sources like the National Weather Service pointing to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s for September 1. Recent late-August observations show consistent readings near or above 98°F under high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light winds that limit mixing and allow surface warming to continue. Forecast models align on limited moisture and no significant frontal passage before the date, supporting the market-implied concentration around 98–101°F while acknowledging typical model uncertainty and potential for slight revisions from afternoon convection or wind shifts. Historical September 1 averages near 94°F underscore the current anomaly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$686End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent summer heat and southerly flow maintain above-normal temperatures across Central Texas, with official guidance from sources like the National Weather Service pointing to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s for September 1. Recent late-August observations show consistent readings near or above 98°F under high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light winds that limit mixing and allow surface warming to continue. Forecast models align on limited moisture and no significant frontal passage before the date, supporting the market-implied concentration around 98–101°F while acknowledging typical model uncertainty and potential for slight revisions from afternoon convection or wind shifts. Historical September 1 averages near 94°F underscore the current anomaly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$686End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent summer heat and southerly flow maintain above-normal temperatures across Central Texas, with official guidance from sources like the National Weather Service pointing to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 90s for September 1. Recent late-August observations show consistent readings near or above 98°F under high pressure, minimal cloud cover, and light winds that limit mixing and allow surface warming to continue. Forecast models align on limited moisture and no significant frontal passage before the date, supporting the market-implied concentration around 98–101°F while acknowledging typical model uncertainty and potential for slight revisions from afternoon convection or wind shifts. Historical September 1 averages near 94°F underscore the current anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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