**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model consensus point to a daily high in the upper 90s for Austin on August 31, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 98-99°F.** Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are sustaining hot, mostly sunny conditions with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk, keeping temperatures near or slightly below recent peaks. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering between 97–100°F and only modest potential for 100–101°F if downslope warming or delayed mixing occurs. Historical late-August averages near 95°F provide context, but the current pattern supports the elevated baseline reflected in trader positioning ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 31?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 31?
98-99°F 57%
100-101°F 29%
96-97°F 9%
102-103°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
9%
98-99°F
57%
100-101°F
29%
102-103°F
5%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 57%
100-101°F 29%
96-97°F 9%
102-103°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
89°F or below
$60 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$88 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$229 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$97 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$415 Vol.
9%
98-99°F
$1,679 Vol.
57%
100-101°F
$590 Vol.
29%
102-103°F
$511 Vol.
5%
104-105°F
$133 Vol.
1%
106-107°F
$140 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model consensus point to a daily high in the upper 90s for Austin on August 31, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 98-99°F.** Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are sustaining hot, mostly sunny conditions with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk, keeping temperatures near or slightly below recent peaks. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering between 97–100°F and only modest potential for 100–101°F if downslope warming or delayed mixing occurs. Historical late-August averages near 95°F provide context, but the current pattern supports the elevated baseline reflected in trader positioning ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,081End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model consensus point to a daily high in the upper 90s for Austin on August 31, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 98-99°F.** Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are sustaining hot, mostly sunny conditions with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk, keeping temperatures near or slightly below recent peaks. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering between 97–100°F and only modest potential for 100–101°F if downslope warming or delayed mixing occurs. Historical late-August averages near 95°F provide context, but the current pattern supports the elevated baseline reflected in trader positioning ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,081End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model consensus point to a daily high in the upper 90s for Austin on August 31, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 98-99°F.** Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are sustaining hot, mostly sunny conditions with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk, keeping temperatures near or slightly below recent peaks. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with most runs clustering between 97–100°F and only modest potential for 100–101°F if downslope warming or delayed mixing occurs. Historical late-August averages near 95°F provide context, but the current pattern supports the elevated baseline reflected in trader positioning ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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