**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 26°C as Tokyo’s official highest temperature for August 30, 2026 (100% implied probability).** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and real-time observations indicating a maximum near 26°C under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and scattered morning rain, limiting solar heating and daytime warming. Historical late-August baselines for central Tokyo average around 29–30°C, but persistent cloud cover and higher humidity on this date have suppressed temperatures, consistent with model consensus from JMA and international sources showing afternoon peaks in the mid-20s°C. The strong market-implied odds align with skin-in-the-game trader assessment of official JMA station data (e.g., Tokyo or nearby sites like Haneda), where the daily maximum is determined by verified observations rather than forecasts. Minor probabilities on adjacent values (0.1% each) account for potential micro-variations in station readings or final data revisions. Realistic scenarios that could challenge 26°C include unexpected afternoon clearing that boosts insolation and pushes readings to 27°C, or a localized measurement anomaly at the primary reporting station. However, current atmospheric conditions and short-range model agreement make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
26°C 100.0%
$69,913 Vol.
$69,913 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
26°C
100%
26°C 100.0%
$69,913 Vol.
$69,913 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
26°C
$10,923 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 26°C as Tokyo’s official highest temperature for August 30, 2026 (100% implied probability).** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and real-time observations indicating a maximum near 26°C under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and scattered morning rain, limiting solar heating and daytime warming. Historical late-August baselines for central Tokyo average around 29–30°C, but persistent cloud cover and higher humidity on this date have suppressed temperatures, consistent with model consensus from JMA and international sources showing afternoon peaks in the mid-20s°C.
The strong market-implied odds align with skin-in-the-game trader assessment of official JMA station data (e.g., Tokyo or nearby sites like Haneda), where the daily maximum is determined by verified observations rather than forecasts. Minor probabilities on adjacent values (0.1% each) account for potential micro-variations in station readings or final data revisions.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge 26°C include unexpected afternoon clearing that boosts insolation and pushes readings to 27°C, or a localized measurement anomaly at the primary reporting station. However, current atmospheric conditions and short-range model agreement make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$69,913End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 26°C as Tokyo’s official highest temperature for August 30, 2026 (100% implied probability).** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and real-time observations indicating a maximum near 26°C under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and scattered morning rain, limiting solar heating and daytime warming. Historical late-August baselines for central Tokyo average around 29–30°C, but persistent cloud cover and higher humidity on this date have suppressed temperatures, consistent with model consensus from JMA and international sources showing afternoon peaks in the mid-20s°C.
The strong market-implied odds align with skin-in-the-game trader assessment of official JMA station data (e.g., Tokyo or nearby sites like Haneda), where the daily maximum is determined by verified observations rather than forecasts. Minor probabilities on adjacent values (0.1% each) account for potential micro-variations in station readings or final data revisions.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge 26°C include unexpected afternoon clearing that boosts insolation and pushes readings to 27°C, or a localized measurement anomaly at the primary reporting station. However, current atmospheric conditions and short-range model agreement make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$69,913End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 26°C as Tokyo’s official highest temperature for August 30, 2026 (100% implied probability).** This positioning reflects Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and real-time observations indicating a maximum near 26°C under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and scattered morning rain, limiting solar heating and daytime warming. Historical late-August baselines for central Tokyo average around 29–30°C, but persistent cloud cover and higher humidity on this date have suppressed temperatures, consistent with model consensus from JMA and international sources showing afternoon peaks in the mid-20s°C. The strong market-implied odds align with skin-in-the-game trader assessment of official JMA station data (e.g., Tokyo or nearby sites like Haneda), where the daily maximum is determined by verified observations rather than forecasts. Minor probabilities on adjacent values (0.1% each) account for potential micro-variations in station readings or final data revisions. Realistic scenarios that could challenge 26°C include unexpected afternoon clearing that boosts insolation and pushes readings to 27°C, or a localized measurement anomaly at the primary reporting station. However, current atmospheric conditions and short-range model agreement make such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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