**Recent official forecasts position 23–24°C as the most probable overnight minimum for Tokyo on August 31.** The Japan Meteorological Agency projects a low of 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, consistent with ensemble guidance showing modest radiative cooling limited by high humidity and cloud cover. Recent observations confirm a cooling trend, with the Aug 30 minimum reaching 19.6–20°C amid scattered showers, yet models indicate stabilization near 23–24°C as a weak high-pressure ridge maintains mild advection. Historical late-August baselines average around 22–24°C, and current steering patterns plus dew points near 21–22°C reduce the likelihood of sharper drops below 22°C. Traders have concentrated probability on these values ahead of the final observational window, reflecting strong model consensus with limited upside for warmer or colder outliers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 31?
24°C 67%
23°C 27%
22°C 9%
20°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
9%
23°C
27%
24°C
67%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 67%
23°C 27%
22°C 9%
20°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
20°C or below
$196 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$260 Vol.
9%
23°C
$780 Vol.
27%
24°C
$636 Vol.
67%
25°C
$1,566 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$228 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$321 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$226 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$73 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$1,266 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 23–24°C as the most probable overnight minimum for Tokyo on August 31.** The Japan Meteorological Agency projects a low of 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, consistent with ensemble guidance showing modest radiative cooling limited by high humidity and cloud cover. Recent observations confirm a cooling trend, with the Aug 30 minimum reaching 19.6–20°C amid scattered showers, yet models indicate stabilization near 23–24°C as a weak high-pressure ridge maintains mild advection. Historical late-August baselines average around 22–24°C, and current steering patterns plus dew points near 21–22°C reduce the likelihood of sharper drops below 22°C. Traders have concentrated probability on these values ahead of the final observational window, reflecting strong model consensus with limited upside for warmer or colder outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,792End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 23–24°C as the most probable overnight minimum for Tokyo on August 31.** The Japan Meteorological Agency projects a low of 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, consistent with ensemble guidance showing modest radiative cooling limited by high humidity and cloud cover. Recent observations confirm a cooling trend, with the Aug 30 minimum reaching 19.6–20°C amid scattered showers, yet models indicate stabilization near 23–24°C as a weak high-pressure ridge maintains mild advection. Historical late-August baselines average around 22–24°C, and current steering patterns plus dew points near 21–22°C reduce the likelihood of sharper drops below 22°C. Traders have concentrated probability on these values ahead of the final observational window, reflecting strong model consensus with limited upside for warmer or colder outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,792End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts position 23–24°C as the most probable overnight minimum for Tokyo on August 31.** The Japan Meteorological Agency projects a low of 23°C under mostly cloudy skies with light easterly winds, consistent with ensemble guidance showing modest radiative cooling limited by high humidity and cloud cover. Recent observations confirm a cooling trend, with the Aug 30 minimum reaching 19.6–20°C amid scattered showers, yet models indicate stabilization near 23–24°C as a weak high-pressure ridge maintains mild advection. Historical late-August baselines average around 22–24°C, and current steering patterns plus dew points near 21–22°C reduce the likelihood of sharper drops below 22°C. Traders have concentrated probability on these values ahead of the final observational window, reflecting strong model consensus with limited upside for warmer or colder outliers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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