Persistent late-summer high pressure and clear skies are sustaining hot, dry conditions across central Texas, with official NWS forecasts calling for a high near 99°F in Austin under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. Model consensus from multiple sources clusters between 97–100°F, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on the 98–99°F bin (67%) and secondary support for 100–101°F (29%). Recent days of 98–103°F readings have reinforced trader expectations of another upper-90s peak, while the absence of stronger winds, increased humidity, or incoming fronts limits upside risk beyond 101°F. Updated afternoon observations and any last model runs could still nudge the final maximum within the narrow 96–101°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 30?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 30?
98-99°F 67%
100-101°F 29%
96-97°F 5%
94-95°F 1.1%
$12,951 Vol.
$12,951 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
5%
98-99°F
67%
100-101°F
29%
102-103°F
1%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 67%
100-101°F 29%
96-97°F 5%
94-95°F 1.1%
$12,951 Vol.
$12,951 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
89°F or below
$250 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$230 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$145 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$461 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$1,020 Vol.
5%
98-99°F
$7,465 Vol.
67%
100-101°F
$2,326 Vol.
29%
102-103°F
$578 Vol.
1%
104-105°F
$294 Vol.
1%
106-107°F
$150 Vol.
<1%
108°F or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer high pressure and clear skies are sustaining hot, dry conditions across central Texas, with official NWS forecasts calling for a high near 99°F in Austin under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. Model consensus from multiple sources clusters between 97–100°F, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on the 98–99°F bin (67%) and secondary support for 100–101°F (29%). Recent days of 98–103°F readings have reinforced trader expectations of another upper-90s peak, while the absence of stronger winds, increased humidity, or incoming fronts limits upside risk beyond 101°F. Updated afternoon observations and any last model runs could still nudge the final maximum within the narrow 96–101°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,951End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer high pressure and clear skies are sustaining hot, dry conditions across central Texas, with official NWS forecasts calling for a high near 99°F in Austin under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. Model consensus from multiple sources clusters between 97–100°F, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on the 98–99°F bin (67%) and secondary support for 100–101°F (29%). Recent days of 98–103°F readings have reinforced trader expectations of another upper-90s peak, while the absence of stronger winds, increased humidity, or incoming fronts limits upside risk beyond 101°F. Updated afternoon observations and any last model runs could still nudge the final maximum within the narrow 96–101°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,951End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent late-summer high pressure and clear skies are sustaining hot, dry conditions across central Texas, with official NWS forecasts calling for a high near 99°F in Austin under light southerly flow and minimal cloud cover. Model consensus from multiple sources clusters between 97–100°F, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting on the 98–99°F bin (67%) and secondary support for 100–101°F (29%). Recent days of 98–103°F readings have reinforced trader expectations of another upper-90s peak, while the absence of stronger winds, increased humidity, or incoming fronts limits upside risk beyond 101°F. Updated afternoon observations and any last model runs could still nudge the final maximum within the narrow 96–101°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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