Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate cloudy conditions with widespread rain and thunderstorms across Shanghai on September 1, driven by easterly flow and a passing weather system that will limit solar heating and cap daytime highs. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 30°C (52% implied probability) and 29–31°C outcomes, as precipitation typically holds maxima near or below seasonal norms around 30–32°C rather than allowing clearer-sky peaks near 34°C or higher. Current late-August patterns of high humidity and southerly winds provide supporting context, though model spreads on exact rainfall timing introduce modest uncertainty around the precise maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 1?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 1?
30°C 52%
31°C 25%
29°C 17%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
17%
30°C
52%
31°C
25%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 52%
31°C 25%
29°C 17%
32°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
25°C or below
$975 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$446 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$490 Vol.
1%
28°C
$219 Vol.
3%
29°C
$939 Vol.
17%
30°C
$1,342 Vol.
52%
31°C
$1,017 Vol.
25%
32°C
$352 Vol.
5%
33°C
$135 Vol.
1%
34°C
$147 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$313 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate cloudy conditions with widespread rain and thunderstorms across Shanghai on September 1, driven by easterly flow and a passing weather system that will limit solar heating and cap daytime highs. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 30°C (52% implied probability) and 29–31°C outcomes, as precipitation typically holds maxima near or below seasonal norms around 30–32°C rather than allowing clearer-sky peaks near 34°C or higher. Current late-August patterns of high humidity and southerly winds provide supporting context, though model spreads on exact rainfall timing introduce modest uncertainty around the precise maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,373End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate cloudy conditions with widespread rain and thunderstorms across Shanghai on September 1, driven by easterly flow and a passing weather system that will limit solar heating and cap daytime highs. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 30°C (52% implied probability) and 29–31°C outcomes, as precipitation typically holds maxima near or below seasonal norms around 30–32°C rather than allowing clearer-sky peaks near 34°C or higher. Current late-August patterns of high humidity and southerly winds provide supporting context, though model spreads on exact rainfall timing introduce modest uncertainty around the precise maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,373End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate cloudy conditions with widespread rain and thunderstorms across Shanghai on September 1, driven by easterly flow and a passing weather system that will limit solar heating and cap daytime highs. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 30°C (52% implied probability) and 29–31°C outcomes, as precipitation typically holds maxima near or below seasonal norms around 30–32°C rather than allowing clearer-sky peaks near 34°C or higher. Current late-August patterns of high humidity and southerly winds provide supporting context, though model spreads on exact rainfall timing introduce modest uncertainty around the precise maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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