Hong Kong Observatory forecasts normal to below-normal September 2026 rainfall, consistent with the market's leading <275 mm bin at 32.5% amid a rapidly developing strong El Niño event expected to peak later in the year. El Niño typically enhances subsidence and strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high, reducing monsoon moisture transport and tropical cyclone impacts over the South China Sea and southern China. Early-month low-pressure troughs could still trigger localized heavy rain, while strengthening upper-level anticyclones later may suppress totals further. Historical September averages near 321 mm provide context, yet interannual variability from cyclone tracks and exact ENSO intensity creates the observed wide probability spread across bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 29%
275-300mm 16%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
31%
275-300mm
16%
300-325mm
12%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
8%
375-400mm
7%
400-450mm
7%
450-500mm
11%
500-550mm
7%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 29%
275-300mm 16%
300-325mm 12%
450-500mm 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$605 Vol.
31%
275-300mm
$128 Vol.
16%
300-325mm
$128 Vol.
12%
325-350mm
$128 Vol.
9%
350-375mm
$125 Vol.
8%
375-400mm
$125 Vol.
7%
400-450mm
$150 Vol.
7%
450-500mm
$125 Vol.
11%
500-550mm
$128 Vol.
7%
550mm+
$150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts normal to below-normal September 2026 rainfall, consistent with the market's leading <275 mm bin at 32.5% amid a rapidly developing strong El Niño event expected to peak later in the year. El Niño typically enhances subsidence and strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high, reducing monsoon moisture transport and tropical cyclone impacts over the South China Sea and southern China. Early-month low-pressure troughs could still trigger localized heavy rain, while strengthening upper-level anticyclones later may suppress totals further. Historical September averages near 321 mm provide context, yet interannual variability from cyclone tracks and exact ENSO intensity creates the observed wide probability spread across bins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$1,790End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory forecasts normal to below-normal September 2026 rainfall, consistent with the market's leading <275 mm bin at 32.5% amid a rapidly developing strong El Niño event expected to peak later in the year. El Niño typically enhances subsidence and strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high, reducing monsoon moisture transport and tropical cyclone impacts over the South China Sea and southern China. Early-month low-pressure troughs could still trigger localized heavy rain, while strengthening upper-level anticyclones later may suppress totals further. Historical September averages near 321 mm provide context, yet interannual variability from cyclone tracks and exact ENSO intensity creates the observed wide probability spread across bins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,790End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory forecasts normal to below-normal September 2026 rainfall, consistent with the market's leading <275 mm bin at 32.5% amid a rapidly developing strong El Niño event expected to peak later in the year. El Niño typically enhances subsidence and strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high, reducing monsoon moisture transport and tropical cyclone impacts over the South China Sea and southern China. Early-month low-pressure troughs could still trigger localized heavy rain, while strengthening upper-level anticyclones later may suppress totals further. Historical September averages near 321 mm provide context, yet interannual variability from cyclone tracks and exact ENSO intensity creates the observed wide probability spread across bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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