A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 57%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 29%
3rd hottest 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
36%
2nd hottest
57%
3rd hottest
26%
4th or lower
29%
2nd hottest 57%
1st hottest 36%
4th or lower 29%
3rd hottest 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$273 Vol.
36%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
57%
3rd hottest
$0 Vol.
26%
4th or lower
$250 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$523End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$523End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening super El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a November–January peak near +3.5–4°C, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate September 2026 global temperatures. Record ocean heat content through August and recent monthly anomalies near or above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels support trader-implied odds favoring a second-place finish (56%), as the event’s global temperature response typically lags peak ENSO conditions by several months and 2024 remains the benchmark. Model consensus and historical analogs from prior strong events indicate a realistic path to first place if early intensification boosts September anomalies further, while dataset differences and natural variability introduce uncertainty that could push the month to third or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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