**Trader sentiment for San Francisco’s September 2 high temperature centers on a tight cluster around 68–71°F, with those two bins holding the highest implied probabilities (26.5% and 27.0%).** This distribution reflects model consensus and recent National Weather Service guidance pointing to a high near 68°F amid persistent onshore southwest flow and a lingering marine layer that limits daytime heating. San Francisco’s characteristic sea-breeze and fog regime typically caps temperatures well below inland values; current forecasts show partly cloudy conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s to low 70s, consistent with the September climatological average of roughly 70°F. Recent cool, drizzly conditions through early September have reinforced the marine influence, reducing the chance of stronger warming from offshore flow or clearer skies. The near-even split between the 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes captures remaining uncertainty in cloud cover timing and exact wind strength, both of which can shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Lower-probability bins (below 66°F or above 74°F) align with historical rarity under these synoptic conditions, while the overall market pricing embeds the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that the most likely outcome stays within the narrow 68–71°F window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 2?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 2?
70-71°F 27%
72-73°F 21%
64-65°F 15%
66-67°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
63°F or below
5%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 27%
72-73°F 21%
64-65°F 15%
66-67°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
63°F or below
$308 Vol.
5%
64-65°F
$25 Vol.
15%
66-67°F
$88 Vol.
10%
68-69°F
$83 Vol.
27%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
27%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
21%
74-75°F
$16 Vol.
8%
76-77°F
$66 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$182 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for San Francisco’s September 2 high temperature centers on a tight cluster around 68–71°F, with those two bins holding the highest implied probabilities (26.5% and 27.0%).** This distribution reflects model consensus and recent National Weather Service guidance pointing to a high near 68°F amid persistent onshore southwest flow and a lingering marine layer that limits daytime heating.
San Francisco’s characteristic sea-breeze and fog regime typically caps temperatures well below inland values; current forecasts show partly cloudy conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s to low 70s, consistent with the September climatological average of roughly 70°F. Recent cool, drizzly conditions through early September have reinforced the marine influence, reducing the chance of stronger warming from offshore flow or clearer skies.
The near-even split between the 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes captures remaining uncertainty in cloud cover timing and exact wind strength, both of which can shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Lower-probability bins (below 66°F or above 74°F) align with historical rarity under these synoptic conditions, while the overall market pricing embeds the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that the most likely outcome stays within the narrow 68–71°F window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$779End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for San Francisco’s September 2 high temperature centers on a tight cluster around 68–71°F, with those two bins holding the highest implied probabilities (26.5% and 27.0%).** This distribution reflects model consensus and recent National Weather Service guidance pointing to a high near 68°F amid persistent onshore southwest flow and a lingering marine layer that limits daytime heating.
San Francisco’s characteristic sea-breeze and fog regime typically caps temperatures well below inland values; current forecasts show partly cloudy conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s to low 70s, consistent with the September climatological average of roughly 70°F. Recent cool, drizzly conditions through early September have reinforced the marine influence, reducing the chance of stronger warming from offshore flow or clearer skies.
The near-even split between the 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes captures remaining uncertainty in cloud cover timing and exact wind strength, both of which can shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Lower-probability bins (below 66°F or above 74°F) align with historical rarity under these synoptic conditions, while the overall market pricing embeds the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that the most likely outcome stays within the narrow 68–71°F window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$779End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for San Francisco’s September 2 high temperature centers on a tight cluster around 68–71°F, with those two bins holding the highest implied probabilities (26.5% and 27.0%).** This distribution reflects model consensus and recent National Weather Service guidance pointing to a high near 68°F amid persistent onshore southwest flow and a lingering marine layer that limits daytime heating. San Francisco’s characteristic sea-breeze and fog regime typically caps temperatures well below inland values; current forecasts show partly cloudy conditions with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s to low 70s, consistent with the September climatological average of roughly 70°F. Recent cool, drizzly conditions through early September have reinforced the marine influence, reducing the chance of stronger warming from offshore flow or clearer skies. The near-even split between the 68–69°F and 70–71°F outcomes captures remaining uncertainty in cloud cover timing and exact wind strength, both of which can shift the daily maximum by a degree or two. Lower-probability bins (below 66°F or above 74°F) align with historical rarity under these synoptic conditions, while the overall market pricing embeds the “wisdom of crowds” assessment that the most likely outcome stays within the narrow 68–71°F window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions