Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) points to a daily maximum near 77–78°F on August 31 under morning marine layer and low clouds giving way to afternoon sun, with southwest winds near 15 mph. This cooling follows the late-August heat wave that produced 86–90°F readings at LAX from August 26–29, driven by stronger onshore flow that typically caps coastal highs in the upper 70s. Market-implied odds favor the 78–79°F bin at 47.5 percent because most deterministic and statistical models cluster around this range, while modest uncertainty in sea-breeze timing or boundary-layer mixing supports the secondary 80–81°F probability at 31.5 percent. Historical August 31 normals near 77°F provide climatological context for the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 31?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 31?
78-79°F 48%
80-81°F 32%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
48%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
5%
84°F or higher
1%
78-79°F 48%
80-81°F 32%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
$1,116 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,206 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$296 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$81 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$68 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$111 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$732 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$2,661 Vol.
48%
80-81°F
$556 Vol.
32%
82-83°F
$149 Vol.
5%
84°F or higher
$192 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) points to a daily maximum near 77–78°F on August 31 under morning marine layer and low clouds giving way to afternoon sun, with southwest winds near 15 mph. This cooling follows the late-August heat wave that produced 86–90°F readings at LAX from August 26–29, driven by stronger onshore flow that typically caps coastal highs in the upper 70s. Market-implied odds favor the 78–79°F bin at 47.5 percent because most deterministic and statistical models cluster around this range, while modest uncertainty in sea-breeze timing or boundary-layer mixing supports the secondary 80–81°F probability at 31.5 percent. Historical August 31 normals near 77°F provide climatological context for the current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$7,169End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) points to a daily maximum near 77–78°F on August 31 under morning marine layer and low clouds giving way to afternoon sun, with southwest winds near 15 mph. This cooling follows the late-August heat wave that produced 86–90°F readings at LAX from August 26–29, driven by stronger onshore flow that typically caps coastal highs in the upper 70s. Market-implied odds favor the 78–79°F bin at 47.5 percent because most deterministic and statistical models cluster around this range, while modest uncertainty in sea-breeze timing or boundary-layer mixing supports the secondary 80–81°F probability at 31.5 percent. Historical August 31 normals near 77°F provide climatological context for the current consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,169End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) points to a daily maximum near 77–78°F on August 31 under morning marine layer and low clouds giving way to afternoon sun, with southwest winds near 15 mph. This cooling follows the late-August heat wave that produced 86–90°F readings at LAX from August 26–29, driven by stronger onshore flow that typically caps coastal highs in the upper 70s. Market-implied odds favor the 78–79°F bin at 47.5 percent because most deterministic and statistical models cluster around this range, while modest uncertainty in sea-breeze timing or boundary-layer mixing supports the secondary 80–81°F probability at 31.5 percent. Historical August 31 normals near 77°F provide climatological context for the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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