Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicate the minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 14 will likely settle in the 12–14°C range, driven by light southerly to easterly winds and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiational cooling overnight. Recent stable high-pressure conditions have produced similar nocturnal temperatures around 13–15°C the prior evening, with dew points near 13°C supporting modest humidity and fog potential that could temper the low. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these outcomes because ensemble spreads remain narrow, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could push readings toward 11°C or 15°C. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, but current patterns favor a slightly milder result ahead of the next model update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 14?
17°C or higher 38%
16°C 37%
11°C 36%
13°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
18%
10°C
18%
11°C
36%
12°C
31%
13°C
33%
14°C
28%
15°C
22%
16°C
37%
17°C or higher
38%
17°C or higher 38%
16°C 37%
11°C 36%
13°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
8°C
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$0 Vol.
18%
10°C
$0 Vol.
18%
11°C
$0 Vol.
36%
12°C
$0 Vol.
31%
13°C
$0 Vol.
33%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
37%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicate the minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 14 will likely settle in the 12–14°C range, driven by light southerly to easterly winds and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiational cooling overnight. Recent stable high-pressure conditions have produced similar nocturnal temperatures around 13–15°C the prior evening, with dew points near 13°C supporting modest humidity and fog potential that could temper the low. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these outcomes because ensemble spreads remain narrow, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could push readings toward 11°C or 15°C. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, but current patterns favor a slightly milder result ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicate the minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 14 will likely settle in the 12–14°C range, driven by light southerly to easterly winds and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiational cooling overnight. Recent stable high-pressure conditions have produced similar nocturnal temperatures around 13–15°C the prior evening, with dew points near 13°C supporting modest humidity and fog potential that could temper the low. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these outcomes because ensemble spreads remain narrow, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could push readings toward 11°C or 15°C. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, but current patterns favor a slightly milder result ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from ECMWF and GFS ensembles indicate the minimum temperature in Amsterdam on September 14 will likely settle in the 12–14°C range, driven by light southerly to easterly winds and variable cloud cover that limits strong radiational cooling overnight. Recent stable high-pressure conditions have produced similar nocturnal temperatures around 13–15°C the prior evening, with dew points near 13°C supporting modest humidity and fog potential that could temper the low. Trader consensus clusters tightly on these outcomes because ensemble spreads remain narrow, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind speed could push readings toward 11°C or 15°C. Historical September averages near 11°C provide context, but current patterns favor a slightly milder result ahead of the next model update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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