Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show a cloudy Friday with scattered showers and 60–70% precipitation probability for Tokyo on August 21, which limits peak solar insolation and caps daytime heating near 31–32°C. Typical mid-August conditions feature a strengthened Pacific High, high humidity (70–80%), and an urban heat island that normally pushes maxima to 32–34°C, but increased cloud cover and potential sea-breeze effects introduce modest cooling relative to clearer analogs. With resolution just 48 hours away, traders weigh the narrow spread between 30°C and 32°C outcomes against small forecast shifts in timing or intensity of any showers; historical August maxima average near 31°C, underscoring how modest atmospheric variability can decide the exact daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
31°C 38%
30°C 31%
32°C 18%
29°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
9%
30°C
31%
31°C
38%
32°C
18%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 38%
30°C 31%
32°C 18%
29°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
25°C or below
$2,155 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$270 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$141 Vol.
1%
28°C
$38 Vol.
3%
29°C
$79 Vol.
9%
30°C
$118 Vol.
31%
31°C
$341 Vol.
38%
32°C
$131 Vol.
18%
33°C
$62 Vol.
5%
34°C
$148 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$15 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show a cloudy Friday with scattered showers and 60–70% precipitation probability for Tokyo on August 21, which limits peak solar insolation and caps daytime heating near 31–32°C. Typical mid-August conditions feature a strengthened Pacific High, high humidity (70–80%), and an urban heat island that normally pushes maxima to 32–34°C, but increased cloud cover and potential sea-breeze effects introduce modest cooling relative to clearer analogs. With resolution just 48 hours away, traders weigh the narrow spread between 30°C and 32°C outcomes against small forecast shifts in timing or intensity of any showers; historical August maxima average near 31°C, underscoring how modest atmospheric variability can decide the exact daily high.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,497End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show a cloudy Friday with scattered showers and 60–70% precipitation probability for Tokyo on August 21, which limits peak solar insolation and caps daytime heating near 31–32°C. Typical mid-August conditions feature a strengthened Pacific High, high humidity (70–80%), and an urban heat island that normally pushes maxima to 32–34°C, but increased cloud cover and potential sea-breeze effects introduce modest cooling relative to clearer analogs. With resolution just 48 hours away, traders weigh the narrow spread between 30°C and 32°C outcomes against small forecast shifts in timing or intensity of any showers; historical August maxima average near 31°C, underscoring how modest atmospheric variability can decide the exact daily high.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,497End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models show a cloudy Friday with scattered showers and 60–70% precipitation probability for Tokyo on August 21, which limits peak solar insolation and caps daytime heating near 31–32°C. Typical mid-August conditions feature a strengthened Pacific High, high humidity (70–80%), and an urban heat island that normally pushes maxima to 32–34°C, but increased cloud cover and potential sea-breeze effects introduce modest cooling relative to clearer analogs. With resolution just 48 hours away, traders weigh the narrow spread between 30°C and 32°C outcomes against small forecast shifts in timing or intensity of any showers; historical August maxima average near 31°C, underscoring how modest atmospheric variability can decide the exact daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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