Skip to main content
icon for Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?

icon for Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?

Aug 4

Aug 5

Aug 4

Aug 5

28°C 41%

27°C 28%

29°C 19%

26°C 9%

Polymarket
NEW

28°C 41%

27°C 28%

29°C 19%

26°C 9%

Polymarket
NEW

22°C or below

$32 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$108 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$34 Vol.

1%

25°C

$41 Vol.

2%

26°C

$100 Vol.

9%

27°C

$98 Vol.

28%

28°C

$235 Vol.

41%

29°C

$33 Vol.

19%

30°C

$22 Vol.

5%

31°C

$29 Vol.

3%

32°C or higher

$29 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent INMET and global model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, form the main driver behind the market’s concentration on 27–28 °C, with ensemble means indicating a maximum near 27.5 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. August climatology for São Paulo shows average highs of 23–25 °C, so current projections reflect a modest warm anomaly without extreme heat advection or strong insolation. Light easterly flow and low humidity minima around 20 % support efficient daytime warming but limit further intensification, keeping 29 °C and higher at low implied odds. Updated model outputs and the official INMET observation released tomorrow evening will determine final resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$760
End Date
Aug 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent INMET and global model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, form the main driver behind the market’s concentration on 27–28 °C, with ensemble means indicating a maximum near 27.5 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. August climatology for São Paulo shows average highs of 23–25 °C, so current projections reflect a modest warm anomaly without extreme heat advection or strong insolation. Light easterly flow and low humidity minima around 20 % support efficient daytime warming but limit further intensification, keeping 29 °C and higher at low implied odds. Updated model outputs and the official INMET observation released tomorrow evening will determine final resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$760
End Date
Aug 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

icon for Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 4?

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 4?

41%
icon for Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?

44%
icon for Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 5?

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 5?

47%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "28°C" at 41%, followed by "27°C" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?" is "28°C" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "27°C" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.