Recent model consensus from INMET and global numerical forecasts indicates a mild winter day in São Paulo, with maximum temperatures likely peaking between 25–28 °C amid dry-season high pressure, light southeasterly winds, and limited cloud cover that allows strong daytime heating. Above-average regional warmth—up to 1 °C above climatological norms—stems from persistent subsidence and reduced moisture, elevating the odds for 26 °C or 27 °C. Urban heat-island effects and minor variations in boundary-layer mixing or afternoon insolation create the narrow spread among leading outcomes, while official station data from central São Paulo will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 4?
26°C 41%
27°C 34%
25°C 19%
28°C 9%
NEW
$11,027 Vol.
NEW
$11,027 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
19%
26°C
41%
27°C
34%
28°C
9%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 41%
27°C 34%
25°C 19%
28°C 9%
NEW
$11,027 Vol.
NEW
$11,027 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
$864 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$567 Vol.
1%
24°C
$816 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,372 Vol.
19%
26°C
$3,603 Vol.
41%
27°C
$1,347 Vol.
34%
28°C
$988 Vol.
9%
29°C
$496 Vol.
1%
30°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$367 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from INMET and global numerical forecasts indicates a mild winter day in São Paulo, with maximum temperatures likely peaking between 25–28 °C amid dry-season high pressure, light southeasterly winds, and limited cloud cover that allows strong daytime heating. Above-average regional warmth—up to 1 °C above climatological norms—stems from persistent subsidence and reduced moisture, elevating the odds for 26 °C or 27 °C. Urban heat-island effects and minor variations in boundary-layer mixing or afternoon insolation create the narrow spread among leading outcomes, while official station data from central São Paulo will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,027End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from INMET and global numerical forecasts indicates a mild winter day in São Paulo, with maximum temperatures likely peaking between 25–28 °C amid dry-season high pressure, light southeasterly winds, and limited cloud cover that allows strong daytime heating. Above-average regional warmth—up to 1 °C above climatological norms—stems from persistent subsidence and reduced moisture, elevating the odds for 26 °C or 27 °C. Urban heat-island effects and minor variations in boundary-layer mixing or afternoon insolation create the narrow spread among leading outcomes, while official station data from central São Paulo will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,027End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from INMET and global numerical forecasts indicates a mild winter day in São Paulo, with maximum temperatures likely peaking between 25–28 °C amid dry-season high pressure, light southeasterly winds, and limited cloud cover that allows strong daytime heating. Above-average regional warmth—up to 1 °C above climatological norms—stems from persistent subsidence and reduced moisture, elevating the odds for 26 °C or 27 °C. Urban heat-island effects and minor variations in boundary-layer mixing or afternoon insolation create the narrow spread among leading outcomes, while official station data from central São Paulo will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions