OpenAI holds a modest 56% market-implied probability of announcing recursive self-improvement first, reflecting trader consensus around its recent internal milestones. In early September 2026, OpenAI’s chief scientist detailed an “automated research intern” achieving 3.1 agent workdays per human workday, alongside an RSI Index benchmark and explicit prioritization of automated AI research pipelines. These claims build on July 2026 GPT-5.6 releases and position OpenAI ahead in measurable self-directed model optimization. Anthropic’s June 2026 disclosures showed Claude authoring over 80% of production code and running extended research loops, yet the lab has repeatedly stated full autonomous successor design remains unachieved. Recent industry calls for voluntary slowdowns, endorsed by leaders at both companies, underscore the competitive focus on this threshold while highlighting that neither has crossed into announced recursive self-improvement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI
56% 概率
最新
最新
2027-12-31
OpenAI
56% 概率
最新
最新
2027-12-31
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI holds a modest 56% market-implied probability of announcing recursive self-improvement first, reflecting trader consensus around its recent internal milestones. In early September 2026, OpenAI’s chief scientist detailed an “automated research intern” achieving 3.1 agent workdays per human workday, alongside an RSI Index benchmark and explicit prioritization of automated AI research pipelines. These claims build on July 2026 GPT-5.6 releases and position OpenAI ahead in measurable self-directed model optimization. Anthropic’s June 2026 disclosures showed Claude authoring over 80% of production code and running extended research loops, yet the lab has repeatedly stated full autonomous successor design remains unachieved. Recent industry calls for voluntary slowdowns, endorsed by leaders at both companies, underscore the competitive focus on this threshold while highlighting that neither has crossed into announced recursive self-improvement.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
交易量
$461结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ETThis market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI holds a modest 56% market-implied probability of announcing recursive self-improvement first, reflecting trader consensus around its recent internal milestones. In early September 2026, OpenAI’s chief scientist detailed an “automated research intern” achieving 3.1 agent workdays per human workday, alongside an RSI Index benchmark and explicit prioritization of automated AI research pipelines. These claims build on July 2026 GPT-5.6 releases and position OpenAI ahead in measurable self-directed model optimization. Anthropic’s June 2026 disclosures showed Claude authoring over 80% of production code and running extended research loops, yet the lab has repeatedly stated full autonomous successor design remains unachieved. Recent industry calls for voluntary slowdowns, endorsed by leaders at both companies, underscore the competitive focus on this threshold while highlighting that neither has crossed into announced recursive self-improvement.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$461结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:42 PM ETOpenAI holds a modest 56% market-implied probability of announcing recursive self-improvement first, reflecting trader consensus around its recent internal milestones. In early September 2026, OpenAI’s chief scientist detailed an “automated research intern” achieving 3.1 agent workdays per human workday, alongside an RSI Index benchmark and explicit prioritization of automated AI research pipelines. These claims build on July 2026 GPT-5.6 releases and position OpenAI ahead in measurable self-directed model optimization. Anthropic’s June 2026 disclosures showed Claude authoring over 80% of production code and running extended research loops, yet the lab has repeatedly stated full autonomous successor design remains unachieved. Recent industry calls for voluntary slowdowns, endorsed by leaders at both companies, underscore the competitive focus on this threshold while highlighting that neither has crossed into announced recursive self-improvement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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