The closely matched market-implied odds across numerous AI developers underscore a highly competitive field where no single lab holds a decisive edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. LiveBench Mathematics evaluates large language models on complex problem-solving tasks, favoring those with strong chain-of-thought capabilities, specialized training data, and efficient scaling of compute resources. Frequent releases from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese players such as DeepSeek and MiniMax keep performance fluid, with recent model updates often shifting relative rankings. Key swing factors include upcoming training runs, benchmark-specific fine-tuning, and potential architectural advances before the October resolution. Traders view these odds as a reflection of genuine uncertainty in rapid AI progress rather than settled leadership.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於MiniMax 48%
Baidu 41%
Anthropic 39%
Amazon 38%

MiniMax
48%

Baidu
41%

Anthropic
39%

Amazon
38%

Alibaba
38%

Moonshot
37%

Meta
37%

Z.ai
37%

微軟
36%

OpenAI
33%

Thinky
32%

StepFun
32%

Nvidia
31%

ByteDance
30%

Mistral
29%

DeepSeek
24%

騰訊
24%

SpaceXAI
22%

24%

Xiaomi
39%

美團
-
MiniMax 48%
Baidu 41%
Anthropic 39%
Amazon 38%

MiniMax
48%

Baidu
41%

Anthropic
39%

Amazon
38%

Alibaba
38%

Moonshot
37%

Meta
37%

Z.ai
37%

微軟
36%

OpenAI
33%

Thinky
32%

StepFun
32%

Nvidia
31%

ByteDance
30%

Mistral
29%

DeepSeek
24%

騰訊
24%

SpaceXAI
22%

24%

Xiaomi
39%

美團
-
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市場開放時間: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds across numerous AI developers underscore a highly competitive field where no single lab holds a decisive edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks. LiveBench Mathematics evaluates large language models on complex problem-solving tasks, favoring those with strong chain-of-thought capabilities, specialized training data, and efficient scaling of compute resources. Frequent releases from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and emerging Chinese players such as DeepSeek and MiniMax keep performance fluid, with recent model updates often shifting relative rankings. Key swing factors include upcoming training runs, benchmark-specific fine-tuning, and potential architectural advances before the October resolution. Traders view these odds as a reflection of genuine uncertainty in rapid AI progress rather than settled leadership.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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