Moonshot AI continues its accelerated release cadence with Kimi K3 launched in mid-July 2026 as a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weights MoE model featuring a 1M-token context window and competitive benchmarks against GPT-5.6 and Claude variants. Trader sentiment on Kimi K4 centers on Moonshot’s reported pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, building on the K2 series’ agentic and coding strengths. No official announcement, model card, or timeline has emerged yet, leaving room for delays common in frontier scaling. Key upcoming catalysts include earnings updates from compute partners and any leaks from Moonshot’s Beijing team ahead of potential late-2026 or 2027 deployment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$17,518 交易量
2026-10-31
2026 年 10 月 31 日
3%
2026年12月31日
16%
$17,518 交易量
2026 年 10 月 31 日
$9,489 交易量
3%
2026年12月31日
$8,030 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI continues its accelerated release cadence with Kimi K3 launched in mid-July 2026 as a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weights MoE model featuring a 1M-token context window and competitive benchmarks against GPT-5.6 and Claude variants. Trader sentiment on Kimi K4 centers on Moonshot’s reported pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, building on the K2 series’ agentic and coding strengths. No official announcement, model card, or timeline has emerged yet, leaving room for delays common in frontier scaling. Key upcoming catalysts include earnings updates from compute partners and any leaks from Moonshot’s Beijing team ahead of potential late-2026 or 2027 deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$17,518結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI continues its accelerated release cadence with Kimi K3 launched in mid-July 2026 as a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weights MoE model featuring a 1M-token context window and competitive benchmarks against GPT-5.6 and Claude variants. Trader sentiment on Kimi K4 centers on Moonshot’s reported pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, building on the K2 series’ agentic and coding strengths. No official announcement, model card, or timeline has emerged yet, leaving room for delays common in frontier scaling. Key upcoming catalysts include earnings updates from compute partners and any leaks from Moonshot’s Beijing team ahead of potential late-2026 or 2027 deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,518結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETMoonshot AI continues its accelerated release cadence with Kimi K3 launched in mid-July 2026 as a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weights MoE model featuring a 1M-token context window and competitive benchmarks against GPT-5.6 and Claude variants. Trader sentiment on Kimi K4 centers on Moonshot’s reported pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, building on the K2 series’ agentic and coding strengths. No official announcement, model card, or timeline has emerged yet, leaving room for delays common in frontier scaling. Key upcoming catalysts include earnings updates from compute partners and any leaks from Moonshot’s Beijing team ahead of potential late-2026 or 2027 deployment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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