Anthropic commands an 84.5% market-implied probability for the best AI agent by end of September due to its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which deliver leading performance in long-running agentic coding, tool use, and enterprise workflows per multiple September 2026 benchmarks. Traders cite Anthropic’s consistent edge in instruction-following, sandbox safety, and multi-step autonomy—bolstered by new commerce-agent blueprints and hardware standards—over rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 2–3 challenges this lead with strong software-engineering and cybersecurity claims, yet trails at 13.7% amid mixed agentic results. Other labs remain below 1% as no comparable frontier agent demonstrations have shifted consensus ahead of the imminent resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 11.7%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$181,820 交易量
$181,820 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
12%
1%
Z.ai
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
微軟
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
百度
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
小米
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 11.7%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$181,820 交易量
$181,820 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
$48,668 交易量
86%
OpenAI
$25,792 交易量
12%
$7,419 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$7,096 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$7,022 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$7,087 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$7,544 交易量
<1%
微軟
$6,935 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$7,505 交易量
<1%
Meta
$7,333 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,966 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$7,029 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$7,098 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$6,903 交易量
<1%
百度
$7,020 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$6,884 交易量
<1%
美團
$6,980 交易量
<1%
小米
$539 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands an 84.5% market-implied probability for the best AI agent by end of September due to its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which deliver leading performance in long-running agentic coding, tool use, and enterprise workflows per multiple September 2026 benchmarks. Traders cite Anthropic’s consistent edge in instruction-following, sandbox safety, and multi-step autonomy—bolstered by new commerce-agent blueprints and hardware standards—over rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 2–3 challenges this lead with strong software-engineering and cybersecurity claims, yet trails at 13.7% amid mixed agentic results. Other labs remain below 1% as no comparable frontier agent demonstrations have shifted consensus ahead of the imminent resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
交易量
$181,820結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands an 84.5% market-implied probability for the best AI agent by end of September due to its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which deliver leading performance in long-running agentic coding, tool use, and enterprise workflows per multiple September 2026 benchmarks. Traders cite Anthropic’s consistent edge in instruction-following, sandbox safety, and multi-step autonomy—bolstered by new commerce-agent blueprints and hardware standards—over rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 2–3 challenges this lead with strong software-engineering and cybersecurity claims, yet trails at 13.7% amid mixed agentic results. Other labs remain below 1% as no comparable frontier agent demonstrations have shifted consensus ahead of the imminent resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$181,820結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETAnthropic commands an 84.5% market-implied probability for the best AI agent by end of September due to its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which deliver leading performance in long-running agentic coding, tool use, and enterprise workflows per multiple September 2026 benchmarks. Traders cite Anthropic’s consistent edge in instruction-following, sandbox safety, and multi-step autonomy—bolstered by new commerce-agent blueprints and hardware standards—over rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 2–3 challenges this lead with strong software-engineering and cybersecurity claims, yet trails at 13.7% amid mixed agentic results. Other labs remain below 1% as no comparable frontier agent demonstrations have shifted consensus ahead of the imminent resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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