The closely matched probabilities across numerous contenders reflect intense competition in the AI agent sector, where no single lab has established a clear edge in building autonomous systems capable of complex, multi-step tasks. Traders appear focused on relative progress in large language model integration with tool use, memory architectures, and real-world benchmarks, with OpenAI holding a slight lead at 46% amid ongoing releases of advanced agent frameworks. Differentiation hinges on factors like developer ecosystem strength, safety alignments, hardware partnerships, and demonstrated scalability, while lower odds for established players such as Google and Meta highlight perceptions of slower agent-specific iteration compared to specialized or emerging labs. With resolution approaching at end of September, upcoming model updates or capability demos could quickly shift sentiment in this fluid landscape.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於OpenAI 41%
Z.ai 27%
SpaceXAI 22%
Amazon 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
OpenAI
41%
Z.ai
27%
SpaceXAI
19%
Amazon
18%
Anthropic
18%
Moonshot
15%
DeepSeek
14%
Mistral
14%
Xiaomi
13%
Alibaba
9%
Meituan
8%
ByteDance
5%
Nvidia
5%
Meta
4%
Microsoft
4%
MiniMax
4%
Baidu
4%
4%
OpenAI 41%
Z.ai 27%
SpaceXAI 22%
Amazon 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
OpenAI
$95 交易量
41%
Z.ai
$75 交易量
27%
SpaceXAI
$75 交易量
19%
Amazon
$36 交易量
18%
Anthropic
$36 交易量
18%
Moonshot
$36 交易量
15%
DeepSeek
$36 交易量
14%
Mistral
$36 交易量
14%
Xiaomi
$41 交易量
13%
Alibaba
$36 交易量
9%
Meituan
$36 交易量
8%
ByteDance
$36 交易量
5%
Nvidia
$60 交易量
5%
Meta
$56 交易量
4%
Microsoft
$85 交易量
4%
MiniMax
$36 交易量
4%
Baidu
$36 交易量
4%
$61 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities across numerous contenders reflect intense competition in the AI agent sector, where no single lab has established a clear edge in building autonomous systems capable of complex, multi-step tasks. Traders appear focused on relative progress in large language model integration with tool use, memory architectures, and real-world benchmarks, with OpenAI holding a slight lead at 46% amid ongoing releases of advanced agent frameworks. Differentiation hinges on factors like developer ecosystem strength, safety alignments, hardware partnerships, and demonstrated scalability, while lower odds for established players such as Google and Meta highlight perceptions of slower agent-specific iteration compared to specialized or emerging labs. With resolution approaching at end of September, upcoming model updates or capability demos could quickly shift sentiment in this fluid landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
交易量
$907結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities across numerous contenders reflect intense competition in the AI agent sector, where no single lab has established a clear edge in building autonomous systems capable of complex, multi-step tasks. Traders appear focused on relative progress in large language model integration with tool use, memory architectures, and real-world benchmarks, with OpenAI holding a slight lead at 46% amid ongoing releases of advanced agent frameworks. Differentiation hinges on factors like developer ecosystem strength, safety alignments, hardware partnerships, and demonstrated scalability, while lower odds for established players such as Google and Meta highlight perceptions of slower agent-specific iteration compared to specialized or emerging labs. With resolution approaching at end of September, upcoming model updates or capability demos could quickly shift sentiment in this fluid landscape.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$907結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across numerous contenders reflect intense competition in the AI agent sector, where no single lab has established a clear edge in building autonomous systems capable of complex, multi-step tasks. Traders appear focused on relative progress in large language model integration with tool use, memory architectures, and real-world benchmarks, with OpenAI holding a slight lead at 46% amid ongoing releases of advanced agent frameworks. Differentiation hinges on factors like developer ecosystem strength, safety alignments, hardware partnerships, and demonstrated scalability, while lower odds for established players such as Google and Meta highlight perceptions of slower agent-specific iteration compared to specialized or emerging labs. With resolution approaching at end of September, upcoming model updates or capability demos could quickly shift sentiment in this fluid landscape.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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