The closely matched market-implied odds reflect intense competition among text-to-video models with no clear leader ahead of the September 30 resolution. Traders are weighing rapid iteration cycles from labs like OpenAI, Google, Runway, KlingAI, and Luma AI, where factors such as motion coherence, prompt adherence, video length, and artifact reduction determine perceived leadership. Recent model updates and benchmark comparisons have kept probabilities tight, as each release narrows quality gaps without establishing sustained dominance. Upcoming developer announcements, capability demonstrations, and user adoption metrics through late summer remain key swing factors in this evolving generative AI segment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Luma AI 46%
阿里巴巴/阿里巴巴-ATH 46%
Pika 46%
Kandinsky 45%

Luma AI
46%

阿里巴巴/阿里巴巴-ATH
46%

Pika
46%

Kandinsky
45%

KlingAI
45%

Lightricks
45%

騰訊
44%

Runway
44%

Genmo AI
44%

字節跳動
44%

Meta
44%

Pruna
43%

OpenAI
43%

SpaceXAI
41%

MiniMax
26%

Pixverse
25%

24%
Luma AI 46%
阿里巴巴/阿里巴巴-ATH 46%
Pika 46%
Kandinsky 45%

Luma AI
46%

阿里巴巴/阿里巴巴-ATH
46%

Pika
46%

Kandinsky
45%

KlingAI
45%

Lightricks
45%

騰訊
44%

Runway
44%

Genmo AI
44%

字節跳動
44%

Meta
44%

Pruna
43%

OpenAI
43%

SpaceXAI
41%

MiniMax
26%

Pixverse
25%

24%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds reflect intense competition among text-to-video models with no clear leader ahead of the September 30 resolution. Traders are weighing rapid iteration cycles from labs like OpenAI, Google, Runway, KlingAI, and Luma AI, where factors such as motion coherence, prompt adherence, video length, and artifact reduction determine perceived leadership. Recent model updates and benchmark comparisons have kept probabilities tight, as each release narrows quality gaps without establishing sustained dominance. Upcoming developer announcements, capability demonstrations, and user adoption metrics through late summer remain key swing factors in this evolving generative AI segment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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