Skip to main content

如需在美國交易，請前往 polymarket.us

icon for 9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？
科技·AI

9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？

icon for 9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？
科技·AI

9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？

10月 1

11月 1

1月 1, 2027

10月 1

11月 1

1月 1, 2027

Anthropic 84%

OpenAI 13.9%

Google 2.1%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$2,353,595 交易量

Anthropic 84%

OpenAI 13.9%

Google 2.1%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$2,353,595 交易量

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$507,921 交易量

84%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$414,539 交易量

14%

icon for Google

Google

$222,449 交易量

2%

icon for Meta

Meta

$286,194 交易量

<1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$217,230 交易量

<1%

icon for 阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴

$150,567 交易量

<1%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$70,811 交易量

<1%

icon for 百度

百度

$33,925 交易量

<1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$100,219 交易量

<1%

icon for 小米

小米

$33,423 交易量

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$77,310 交易量

<1%

icon for 亞馬遜

亞馬遜

$19,219 交易量

<1%

icon for 字節跳動

字節跳動

$47,425 交易量

<1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$18,539 交易量

<1%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$14,148 交易量

<1%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$23,406 交易量

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$25,591 交易量

<1%

icon for 美團

美團

$18,597 交易量

<1%

icon for 騰訊

騰訊

$12,889 交易量

<1%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$21,501 交易量

<1%

icon for 微軟

微軟

$37,694 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 83.5% market-implied probability reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude model updates, which have posted leading results on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks relative to OpenAI, Google, and others. Strong performance in third-party evaluations and consistent capability gains have positioned the company ahead in competitive positioning among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at 13.7% and Google at 2.1% align with perceptions of slower recent progress or integration-focused releases rather than outright benchmark leadership. With resolution at the end of September just weeks away, any new model drops, safety reports, or capability demonstrations could still influence final sentiment before the market settles.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$2,353,595
結束日期
2026-10-01
市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

結算來源

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 83.5% market-implied probability reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude model updates, which have posted leading results on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks relative to OpenAI, Google, and others. Strong performance in third-party evaluations and consistent capability gains have positioned the company ahead in competitive positioning among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at 13.7% and Google at 2.1% align with perceptions of slower recent progress or integration-focused releases rather than outright benchmark leadership. With resolution at the end of September just weeks away, any new model drops, safety reports, or capability demonstrations could still influence final sentiment before the market settles.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$2,353,595
結束日期
2026-10-01
市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

結算來源

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

相關

icon for Anthropic 會在 2026 年 9 月底擁有全球第一的 AI 模型嗎？

Anthropic 會在 2026 年 9 月底擁有全球第一的 AI 模型嗎？

80%
是
icon for Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

76%
icon for Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

77%

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 84%, followed by "OpenAI" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？" has generated $2.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？" is "Anthropic" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "OpenAI" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "9月底，哪家公司的人工智能模型最好？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.