Traders see closely matched odds around 50% for several unnamed labs alongside Google at 40.5% and Alibaba at 37% because recent Text Arena Math leaderboards show tight competition among frontier models on benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA Diamond. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants have posted top scores in step-by-step reasoning and competition math, yet DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Google Gemini updates remain within striking distance on long-horizon tasks. Chinese labs benefit from rapid iteration and cost advantages, while U.S. firms emphasize scale and safety alignments. With October resolution still months away, any new model release or benchmark refresh could reorder the middle rankings before traders settle on third place.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於騰訊 40%
SpaceXAI 39%
字節跳動 37%
Mistral 37%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
騰訊
40%
SpaceXAI
39%
字節跳動
37%
Mistral
37%
Meta
35%
OpenAI
35%
Nvidia
34%
微軟
34%
StepFun
33%
31%
小米
31%
Anthropic
29%
DeepSeek
28%
亞馬遜
27%
Z.ai
18%
MiniMax
8%
美團
5%
阿里巴巴
31%
百度
42%
Moonshot
30%
騰訊 40%
SpaceXAI 39%
字節跳動 37%
Mistral 37%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
騰訊
$49 交易量
40%
SpaceXAI
$49 交易量
39%
字節跳動
$89 交易量
37%
Mistral
$122 交易量
37%
Meta
$49 交易量
35%
OpenAI
$49 交易量
35%
Nvidia
$76 交易量
34%
微軟
$72 交易量
34%
StepFun
$20 交易量
33%
$25 交易量
31%
小米
$49 交易量
31%
Anthropic
$49 交易量
29%
DeepSeek
$49 交易量
28%
亞馬遜
$49 交易量
27%
Z.ai
$49 交易量
18%
MiniMax
$88 交易量
8%
美團
$129 交易量
5%
阿里巴巴
$49 交易量
31%
百度
$59 交易量
42%
Moonshot
$59 交易量
30%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see closely matched odds around 50% for several unnamed labs alongside Google at 40.5% and Alibaba at 37% because recent Text Arena Math leaderboards show tight competition among frontier models on benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA Diamond. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants have posted top scores in step-by-step reasoning and competition math, yet DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Google Gemini updates remain within striking distance on long-horizon tasks. Chinese labs benefit from rapid iteration and cost advantages, while U.S. firms emphasize scale and safety alignments. With October resolution still months away, any new model release or benchmark refresh could reorder the middle rankings before traders settle on third place.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
交易量
$1,230結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see closely matched odds around 50% for several unnamed labs alongside Google at 40.5% and Alibaba at 37% because recent Text Arena Math leaderboards show tight competition among frontier models on benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA Diamond. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants have posted top scores in step-by-step reasoning and competition math, yet DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Google Gemini updates remain within striking distance on long-horizon tasks. Chinese labs benefit from rapid iteration and cost advantages, while U.S. firms emphasize scale and safety alignments. With October resolution still months away, any new model release or benchmark refresh could reorder the middle rankings before traders settle on third place.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,230結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see closely matched odds around 50% for several unnamed labs alongside Google at 40.5% and Alibaba at 37% because recent Text Arena Math leaderboards show tight competition among frontier models on benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA Diamond. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants have posted top scores in step-by-step reasoning and competition math, yet DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Google Gemini updates remain within striking distance on long-horizon tasks. Chinese labs benefit from rapid iteration and cost advantages, while U.S. firms emphasize scale and safety alignments. With October resolution still months away, any new model release or benchmark refresh could reorder the middle rankings before traders settle on third place.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions