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icon for 2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?

2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?

icon for 2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?

2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?

$96,744 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$96,744 交易量

Polymarket

55% 以上

$21,733 交易量

89%

60% 以上

$42,078 交易量

51%

65% 以上

$27,768 交易量

21%

70% 以上

$3,859 交易量

7%

75%+

$1,306 交易量

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid release of advanced Claude variants, including Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5, has driven current trader sentiment by establishing clear leadership on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question benchmark of graduate-level problems across math, sciences, and humanities designed to resist saturation. Recent September 2026 leaderboards show these models achieving 59–65% accuracy depending on evaluation conditions such as tool use and reasoning effort, outpacing GPT-6 Astra, Gemini variants, and others by several points. Iterative gains stem from enhanced reasoning architectures, tool integration, and adaptive prompting, with top Claude scores clustering tightly and suggesting the benchmark is approaching frontier limits. Key upcoming catalysts include additional Anthropic model drops before year-end, potential tool-augmented or multi-agent evaluations, and any independent verifications that could shift the highest recorded Claude score. Traders monitor these releases closely as they directly influence whether thresholds like 60%+ or 65%+ are cleared by December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$96,744
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid release of advanced Claude variants, including Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5, has driven current trader sentiment by establishing clear leadership on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question benchmark of graduate-level problems across math, sciences, and humanities designed to resist saturation. Recent September 2026 leaderboards show these models achieving 59–65% accuracy depending on evaluation conditions such as tool use and reasoning effort, outpacing GPT-6 Astra, Gemini variants, and others by several points. Iterative gains stem from enhanced reasoning architectures, tool integration, and adaptive prompting, with top Claude scores clustering tightly and suggesting the benchmark is approaching frontier limits. Key upcoming catalysts include additional Anthropic model drops before year-end, potential tool-augmented or multi-agent evaluations, and any independent verifications that could shift the highest recorded Claude score. Traders monitor these releases closely as they directly influence whether thresholds like 60%+ or 65%+ are cleared by December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$96,744
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "55% 以上" at 89%, followed by "60% 以上" at 51%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?" has generated $96.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?" is "55% 以上" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "60% 以上" at 51%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年人類最後一次考試的最高克勞德分數?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.