Anthropic’s rapid release of advanced Claude variants, including Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5, has driven current trader sentiment by establishing clear leadership on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question benchmark of graduate-level problems across math, sciences, and humanities designed to resist saturation. Recent September 2026 leaderboards show these models achieving 59–65% accuracy depending on evaluation conditions such as tool use and reasoning effort, outpacing GPT-6 Astra, Gemini variants, and others by several points. Iterative gains stem from enhanced reasoning architectures, tool integration, and adaptive prompting, with top Claude scores clustering tightly and suggesting the benchmark is approaching frontier limits. Key upcoming catalysts include additional Anthropic model drops before year-end, potential tool-augmented or multi-agent evaluations, and any independent verifications that could shift the highest recorded Claude score. Traders monitor these releases closely as they directly influence whether thresholds like 60%+ or 65%+ are cleared by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$96,744 交易量
55% 以上
89%
60% 以上
51%
65% 以上
21%
70% 以上
7%
75%+
4%
$96,744 交易量
55% 以上
89%
60% 以上
51%
65% 以上
21%
70% 以上
7%
75%+
4%
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間: Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Anthropic’s rapid release of advanced Claude variants, including Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos 5, has driven current trader sentiment by establishing clear leadership on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question benchmark of graduate-level problems across math, sciences, and humanities designed to resist saturation. Recent September 2026 leaderboards show these models achieving 59–65% accuracy depending on evaluation conditions such as tool use and reasoning effort, outpacing GPT-6 Astra, Gemini variants, and others by several points. Iterative gains stem from enhanced reasoning architectures, tool integration, and adaptive prompting, with top Claude scores clustering tightly and suggesting the benchmark is approaching frontier limits. Key upcoming catalysts include additional Anthropic model drops before year-end, potential tool-augmented or multi-agent evaluations, and any independent verifications that could shift the highest recorded Claude score. Traders monitor these releases closely as they directly influence whether thresholds like 60%+ or 65%+ are cleared by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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